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Background: Many telehealth systems have been designed to identify signs of exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but few previous studies have reported the nature of recorded lung function data and what variations to expect in this group of individuals. The aim of the study was to evaluate the nature of individual diurnal, day-to-day and long-term variation in important prognostic markers of COPD exacerbations by employing a telehealth system developed in-house.

Methods: Eight women and five men with COPD performed measurements (spirometry, pulse oximetry and the COPD assessment test (CAT)) three times per week for 4-6 months using the telehealth system. Short-term and long-term individual variations were assessed using the relative density and weekly means respectively. Quality of the spirometry measurements (forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and inspiratory capacity (IC)) was assessed employing the criteria of American Thoracic Society (ATS)/European Respiratory Society (ERS) guidelines.

Results: Close to 1100 measurements of both FEV1 and IC were performed during a total of 240 patient weeks. The two standard deviation ranges for intra-individual short-term variation were approximately +/- 210 mL and +/- 350 mL for FEV1 and IC respectively. In long-term, spirometry values increased and decreased without notable changes in symptoms as reported by CAT, although it was unusual with a decrease of more than 50 mL per measurement of FEV1 between three consecutive measurement days. No exacerbation occurred. There was a moderate to strong positive correlation between FEV1 and IC, but weak or absent correlation with the other prognostic markers in the majority of the participants.

Conclusions: Although FEV1 and IC varied within a noticeable range, no corresponding change in symptoms occurred. Therefore, this study reveals important and, to our knowledge, previously not reported information about short and long-term variability in prognostic markers in stable patients with COPD. The present data are of significance when defining criteria for detecting exacerbations using telehealth strategies.