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Transmission dynamics of dengue and chikungunya in a changing climate: do we understand the eco-evolutionary response?
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health.
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health. Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4030-0449
2020 (English)In: Expert Review of Anti-Infective Therapy, ISSN 1478-7210, E-ISSN 1744-8336, Vol. 18, no 12, p. 1187-1193Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Introduction: We are witnessing an alarming increase in the burden and range of mosquito-borne arboviral diseases. The transmission dynamics of arboviral diseases is highly sensitive to climate and weather and is further affected by non-climatic factors such as human mobility, urbanization, and disease control. As evidence also suggests, climate-driven changes in species interactions may trigger evolutionary responses in both vectors and pathogens with important consequences for disease transmission patterns.

Areas covered: Focusing on dengue and chikungunya, we review the current knowledge and challenges in our understanding of disease risk in a rapidly changing climate. We identify the most critical research gaps that limit the predictive skill of arbovirus risk models and the development of early warning systems, and conclude by highlighting the potentially important research directions to stimulate progress in this field.

Expert opinion: Future studies that aim to predict the risk of arboviral diseases need to consider the interactions between climate modes at different timescales, the effects of the many non-climatic drivers, as well as the potential for climate-driven adaptation and evolution in vectors and pathogens. An important outcome of such studies would be an enhanced ability to promulgate early warning information, initiate adequate response, and enhance preparedness capacity.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2020. Vol. 18, no 12, p. 1187-1193
Keywords [en]
Climate variability, climate change, Aedes-borne diseases, evolutionary adaptation, dengue
National Category
Pharmacology and Toxicology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-174499DOI: 10.1080/14787210.2020.1794814ISI: 000555160200001PubMedID: 32741233Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85088965503OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-174499DiVA, id: diva2:1461093
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2018-01754Swedish Research Council Formas, 2017-01300Available from: 2020-08-26 Created: 2020-08-26 Last updated: 2023-03-23Bibliographically approved

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Sjödin, HenrikRocklöv, Joacim

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