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Background and purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential to increase the tumor control probability (TCP) with 'dose painting by numbers' (DPBN) plans optimized in a treatment planning system (TPS) compared to uniform dose plans. The DPBN optimization was based on our earlier published formalism for prostate cancer that is driven by dose-responses of Gleason scores mapped from apparent diffusion coefficients (ADC).

Material and methods: For 17 included patients, a set of DPBN plans were optimized in a TPS by maximizing the TCP for an equal average dose to the prostate volume (CTVT) as for a conventional uniform dose treatment. For the plan optimizations we applied different photon energies, different precisions for the ADC-to-Gleason mappings, and different CTVT positioning uncertainties. The TCP increasing potential was evaluated by the DPBN efficiency, defined as the ratio of TCP increases for DPBN plans by TCP increases for ideal DPBN prescriptions (optimized without considering radiation transport phenomena, uncertainties of the CTVT positioning, and uncertainties of the ADC-to-Gleason mapping).

Results: The median DPBN efficiency for the most conservative planning scenario optimized with a low precision ADC-to-Gleason mapping, and a positioning uncertainty of 0.6 cm was 10%, meaning that more than half of the patients had a TCP gain of at least 10% of the TCP for an ideal DPBN prescription. By increasing the precision of the ADC-to-Gleason mapping, and decreasing the positioning uncertainty the median DPBN efficiency increased by up to 40%.

Conclusions: TCP increases with DPBN plans optimized in a TPS were found more likely with a high precision mapping of image data into dose-responses and a high certainty of the tumor positioning. These findings motivate further development to ensure precise mappings of image data into dose-responses and to ensure a high spatial certainty of the tumor positioning when implementing DPBN clinically.