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OBJECTIVE: To determine the risk association between fasting glucose levels and pancreatic cancer using systematically collected prediagnostic blood glucose samples.

METHODS: Prospective nested case-control study of participants from the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study, including 182 cases that developed pancreatic cancer and four matched controls per case. Blood glucose levels collected up to 24 years before pancreatic cancer diagnosis were analyzed. The association between fasting glucose levels and pancreatic cancer risk was determined using unconditional and conditional logistic regression models. The association between fasting glucose and the time to pancreatic cancer diagnosis, tumor stage and survival was determined using likelihood-ratio test, t-test and log rank test.

RESULTS: The unadjusted risk of developing pancreatic cancer increased with increasing fasting glucose levels (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.05-1.60, P = .015). Impaired fasting glucose (≥6.1 mmol/L) was associated with an adjusted risk of 1.77 for developing pancreatic cancer (95% CI 1.05-2.99, P = .032). In subgroup analysis, fasting glucose levels were associated with an increased risk in never-smokers (OR 4.02, 95% CI 1.26-12.77, P = .018) and non-diabetics (OR 3.08, 95% CI 1.08-8.79, P = .035) (non-significant for interaction). The ratio between fasting glucose and BMI was higher among future pancreatic cancer patients and an increased ratio was associated with elevated risk of pancreatic cancer (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.04-2.66, P = .034). Fasting glucose levels were not associated with TNM stage at diagnosis or survival.

CONCLUSIONS: High fasting glucose is associated with an increased risk of being diagnosed with pancreatic cancer.