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Earnings and Employment Dynamics: Capturing Cyclicality Using Mixed Frequency Data
Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet, Nationalekonomi. (Johan Holmberg)ORCID-id: 0000-0002-1101-2942
2021 (Engelska)Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we present a life-cycle earnings dynamics model including endogenous employment and job change. The model is estimated with the method of indirect inference using Swedish register data. By simulating data from this microeconomic model, we study the macroeconomic consequences of transitory shocks to unemployment risk. The results show that transitory aggregate shocks to unemployment risk have long-lasting negative effects on employment, income, and increases earnings volatility. By studying how unemployment at different ages affects the accumulation and distribution of pension entitlements, we find that becoming unemployed at 40 has the largest effect on pension accumulations. Furthermore, unobserved individual heterogeneity contributes substantially to the observed life-cycle earnings inequality for both men and women in Sweden.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
2021. , s. 38
Serie
Umeå economic studies, ISSN 0348-1018 ; 991
Nyckelord [en]
Earnings dynamics, unemployment, inequality, social insurance, pensions
Nationell ämneskategori
Nationalekonomi
Forskningsämne
nationalekonomi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-185853OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-185853DiVA, id: diva2:1579182
Tillgänglig från: 2021-07-08 Skapad: 2021-07-08 Senast uppdaterad: 2021-07-08Bibliografiskt granskad
Ingår i avhandling
1. Essays on earnings formation, labor market dynamics, and taxation
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Essays on earnings formation, labor market dynamics, and taxation
2021 (Engelska)Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Chapter [I] analyses the dynamic properties of life-cycle earnings of men and women in Sweden by fitting a model to the covariance structure of earnings. We find that the financial crisis of 2008 did not have any major impact on the variability of earnings and that the upward trend in permanent earnings inequality observed in Sweden during the 1990s does not continue in the 2000s. Using the model to simulate the accumulation of income pension entitlements, we find that college-educated workers have smaller variations in pension entitlements than workers with less education.

Chapter [II] presents a life-cycle earnings dynamics model that includes endogenous employment and job change. The model is estimated on Swedish register data using indirect inference. By simulating data from this model, we study the macroeconomic consequences of transitory shocks to unemployment risk, how unemployment at different ages affects the accumulation of pension entitlements, and analyze how different factors contribute to earnings inequality. We find that transitory aggregate shocks to unemployment risk have long-lasting negative effects on employment and earnings, that becoming unemployed at age 40 has a large negative effect on pension accumulations, and that unobserved individual heterogeneity contributes substantially to the observed life-cycle earnings inequality for both men and women in Sweden.

Chapter [III] presents a model of earnings dynamics that includes transitions in and out of employment and business cycle fluctuations. The model is estimated using indirect inference and a mix of Swedish register, survey and macro data. We find that the transitions from unemployment to employment are more sensitive to business cycle fluctuations than the probability of remaining employed. By simulating data from the model, we find that the business cycle has a relatively small impact on earnings inequality in Sweden and that young workers are more sensitive to business cycle fluctuations than older workers.

Chapter [IV] deals with optimal nonlinear taxation of income and profits in a general equilibrium model with frictional unemployment. We find that the government can achieve redistribution of income through taxation without distorting production efficiency. This outcome is possible if the government uses two nonlinear tax instruments, taxing profits and labor income separately. The results also show that including involuntary unemployment creates an incentive to tax entrepreneurial income at lower marginal rates and labor income at higher marginal rates than otherwise.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Umeå: Umeå universitet, 2021. s. 15
Serie
Umeå economic studies, ISSN 0348-1018 ; 988
Nyckelord
Earnings dynamics, inequality, unemployment, social insurance, economic crises, taxation
Nationell ämneskategori
Nationalekonomi
Forskningsämne
nationalekonomi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-185855 (URN)978-91-7855-579-6 (ISBN)978-91-7855-578-9 (ISBN)
Disputation
2021-09-03, Samvetet, Samhällsvetarhuset, Umeå, 10:00 (Engelska)
Opponent
Handledare
Tillgänglig från: 2021-08-16 Skapad: 2021-07-08 Senast uppdaterad: 2021-07-12Bibliografiskt granskad

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