Umeå universitets logga

umu.sePublikationer
Ändra sökning
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study
Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
Visa övriga samt affilieringar
2021 (Engelska)Ingår i: The Lancet Planetary Health, E-ISSN 2542-5196, Vol. 5, nr 7, s. E404-E414Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: Mosquito-borne diseases are expanding their range, and re-emerging in areas where they had subsided for decades. The extent to which climate change influences the transmission suitability and population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases across different altitudes and population densities has not been investigated. The aim of this study was to quantify the extent to which climate change will influence the length of the transmission season and estimate the population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases in the future, given different population densities across an altitudinal gradient.

Methods: Using a multi-model multi-scenario framework, we estimated changes in the length of the transmission season and global population at risk of malaria and dengue for different altitudes and population densities for the period 1951-99. We generated projections from six mosquito-borne disease models, driven by four global circulation models, using four representative concentration pathways, and three shared socioeconomic pathways.

Findings: We show that malaria suitability will increase by 1·6 additional months (mean 0·5, SE 0·03) in tropical highlands in the African region, the Eastern Mediterranean region, and the region of the Americas. Dengue suitability will increase in lowlands in the Western Pacific region and the Eastern Mediterranean region by 4·0 additional months (mean 1·7, SE 0·2). Increases in the climatic suitability of both diseases will be greater in rural areas than in urban areas. The epidemic belt for both diseases will expand towards temperate areas. The population at risk of both diseases might increase by up to 4·7 additional billion people by 2070 relative to 1970-99, particularly in lowlands and urban areas.

Interpretation: Rising global mean temperature will increase the climatic suitability of both diseases particularly in already endemic areas. The predicted expansion towards higher altitudes and temperate regions suggests that outbreaks can occur in areas where people might be immunologically naive and public health systems unprepared. The population at risk of malaria and dengue will be higher in densely populated urban areas in the WHO African region, South-East Asia region, and the region of the Americas, although we did not account for urban-heat island effects, which can further alter the risk of disease transmission.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Elsevier, 2021. Vol. 5, nr 7, s. E404-E414
Nationell ämneskategori
Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap
Forskningsämne
folkhälsa
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-187234DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7ISI: 000675402600006PubMedID: 34245711Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85109456580OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-187234DiVA, id: diva2:1592268
Forskningsfinansiär
Forskningsrådet Formas, 2018-05973Forskningsrådet Formas, 2017-01742Tillgänglig från: 2021-09-08 Skapad: 2021-09-08 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-01-03Bibliografiskt granskad

Open Access i DiVA

fulltext(3288 kB)149 nedladdningar
Filinformation
Filnamn FULLTEXT01.pdfFilstorlek 3288 kBChecksumma SHA-512
cf45b830bd1f40a4dffb207689427b85ba750b7ccdcc2fd0b570f153ac8d9838d367fd7075e4a08bb691868ad54ec8ad4b20e31f97742ae8fddf2c8e84840c6c
Typ fulltextMimetyp application/pdf

Övriga länkar

Förlagets fulltextPubMedScopus

Person

Sewe, Maquins OdhiamboSjödin, HenrikRocklöv, Joacim

Sök vidare i DiVA

Av författaren/redaktören
Sewe, Maquins OdhiamboSjödin, HenrikRocklöv, JoacimLowe, Rachel
Av organisationen
Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa
I samma tidskrift
The Lancet Planetary Health
Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologiGeovetenskap och miljövetenskap

Sök vidare utanför DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Totalt: 149 nedladdningar
Antalet nedladdningar är summan av nedladdningar för alla fulltexter. Det kan inkludera t.ex tidigare versioner som nu inte längre är tillgängliga.

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn

Altmetricpoäng

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn
Totalt: 529 träffar
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf