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Aims: To determine the waist circumference (WC) thresholds for the prediction of incident dysglycaemia and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Black South African (SA) men and women and to compare these to the advocated International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Europid thresholds.

Materials and Methods: In this prospective study, Black SA men (n = 502) and women (n = 527) from the Middle-aged Sowetan Cohort study who had normal or impaired fasting glucose at baseline (2011-2015) were followed up until 2017 to 2018. Baseline measurements included anthropometry, blood pressure and fasting glucose, HDL cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations. At follow-up, glucose tolerance was assessed using an oral glucose tolerance test. The Youden index was used to determine the optimal threshold of WC to predict incident dysglycaemia and T2D.

Results: In men, the optimal WC threshold was 96.8 cm for both dysglycaemia and T2D (sensitivity: 56% and 70%; specificity: 74% and 70%, respectively), and had higher specificity (P < 0.001) than the IDF threshold of 94 cm. In women, the optimal WC threshold for incident dysglycaemia was 91.8 cm (sensitivity 86%, specificity 37%) and for T2D it was 95.8 cm (sensitivity 85%, specificity 45%), which had lower sensitivity, but higher specificity to predict incident dysglycaemia and T2D than the IDF threshold of 80 cm (sensitivity: 97% and 100%; specificity: 12% and 11%, respectively)).

Conclusions: We show for the first time using prospective cohort data from Africa that the IDF Europid WC thresholds are not appropriate for an African population, and show that African-specific WC thresholds perform better than the IDF Europid thresholds to predict incident dysglycaemia and T2D.