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AIMS: To estimate the association between long-term exposure to particulate air pollution and sub-clinical atherosclerosis based on the existence of plaque and the carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT).

METHODS: Visualization of asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease for optimum cardiovascular prevention (VIPVIZA) is a randomised controlled trial integrated within the Västerbotten Intervention Programme, an ongoing population-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention programme in northern Sweden. Individuals aged 40, 50, or 60 years with one or more conventional CVD risk factors in Umeå municipality were eligible to participate. The 1425 participants underwent an ultrasound assessment of cIMT and plaque formation during the period 2013-2016 and at 3-year follow-up. Source-specific annual mean concentrations of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm (PM10) and ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5), and black carbon (BC) at the individual's residential address were modelled for the calendar years 1990, 2001 and 2011. Poisson regression was used to estimate prevalence ratios for presence of carotid artery plaques, and linear regression for cIMT.

RESULTS: The plaque prevalence was 43% at baseline and 47% at follow-up. An interquartile range (IQR) increase in PM10 (range in year 2011: 7.1-13.5 μg/m³) was associated with a prevalence ratio at baseline ultrasound of 1.11 (95% CI 0.99-1.25), 1.08 (95% CI 0.99-1.17), and 1.00 (95% CI 0.93-1.08) for lag 23, 12 and 2 years, and at follow-up 1.04 (95% CI 0.95-1.14), 1.08 (95% CI 1.00-1.16), and 1.01 (95% CI 0.95-1.08). Similar prevalence ratios per IQR were found for PM2.5 and BC, but with somewhat lower precision for the later. Particle concentrations were however not associated with the progression of plaque. No cross-sectional or longitudinal associations of change were found for cIMT.

CONCLUSIONS: This study of individuals with low/moderate risk for CVD give some additional support for an effect of long-term air pollution in early subclinical atherosclerosis.