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Background: Raynaud’s phenomenon is common condition, but little is known about the natural course. The primary aim of this study was to determine the incidence, remission, and persistence proportions of Raynaud’s phenomenon in the general population of northern Sweden. Secondary aims were to determine how individual and exposure factors affect the course of Raynaud’s phenomenon, and to assess gender differences.

Methods: A prospective, survey-based, closed-cohort study was conducted on a sample of men and women between 18–70 years of age, living in northern Sweden. Data on Raynaud’s phenomenon characteristics and general health status were collected during the winters of 2015 (baseline) and 2021 (follow-up). Rates of incidence, remission, and persistence were calculated. Binary logistic regression was used to determine the association between baseline variables and the course of Raynaud’s phenomenon. Results: The study population consisted of 2703 women (53.9%) and 2314 men. There were 390 women (14.5%) and 290 men (12.7%) reporting Raynaud’s phenomenon in the follow-up survey. The annual incidence proportion was 0.7% among women and 0.9% among men (gender difference p = 0.04). The annual remission proportion was 4.4% and 5.5%, respectively (p = 0.05). Having sustained a cold injury affecting the hands since baseline was significantly associated with incident Raynaud’s phenomenon (OR 3.92; 95% CI 2.60–5.90), after adjusting for age and gender.

Conclusions: In the general population of northern Sweden, Raynaud’s phenomenon is a common but variable condition, where symptoms may remit over time. Men had a higher incidence proportion than women. The results support a possible causal pathway where cold injury can precede the onset of Raynaud’s phenomenon.