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Understanding the demographic future of small Arctic villages using agent-based modelling
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Epidemiology and Global Health. Umeå University, Arctic Research Centre at Umeå University. CQUniversity, Australia.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8143-123x
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography. Umeå University, Arctic Research Centre at Umeå University.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8439-2640
2022 (English)In: More than 'nature': research on infrastructure and settlements in the North / [ed] Doris Friedrich; Markus Hirnsperger; Stefan Bauer, Vienna: LIT Verlag, 2022, p. 263-281Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Large parts of the Scandinavian Arctic and sub-Arctic are characterized by small settlements of just a few dozen or hundred inhabitants. Many of these villages have experienced loss of population and services. However, recent in-migration and new technologies facilitating ageing in place and e-commute work have seen some villages grow, some stabilize their population base, and many undergo dramatic demographic transformation. These local processes have largely been hidden from policy-makers and planners because standard statistical analyses and demographic modeling are either only applied at regional level, or are poorly suited to such small populations. This chapter introduces an agent-based demographic model (ABDM) applied to small villages in the north of Sweden. ABDMs provide a way to combine quantitative and qualitative data about demographic change processes and model the impacts of these on population size, structure, and dynamics over time. This chapter presents examples of how ABDMs provide insights into demographic change in the northern inland of Sweden and how they might facilitate truly local-level planning in a peripheral Arctic context. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Vienna: LIT Verlag, 2022. p. 263-281
Series
Beiträge zum zirkumpolaren Norden Contributions to Circumpolar Studies ; 3
Keywords [en]
demographic change, small villages, agent-based demographic model, northern Sweden
National Category
Social and Economic Geography
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-199050ISBN: 978-3-643-91218-3 (print)ISBN: 978-3-643-96218-8 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-199050DiVA, id: diva2:1692275
Available from: 2022-09-01 Created: 2022-09-01 Last updated: 2023-05-02Bibliographically approved

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Carson, Dean B.Carson, Doris A.

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Department of Epidemiology and Global HealthArctic Research Centre at Umeå UniversityDepartment of Geography
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CiteExportLink to record
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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
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Language
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  • fi-FI
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More languages
Output format
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