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Objectives: To test whether postulated subtypes of early childhood caries (ECC) are predictive of subsequent caries experience in a population-based cohort of Swedish children.

Methods: The study included children aged between 3 and 5 years at study entry with dental records available for at least 5 years of follow-up. Dental record data were retrieved from the Swedish Quality Registry for Caries and Periodontal disease (SKaPa) for the initial and follow-up visits. Participants who had ECC at study entry were assigned to one of five ECC subtypes (termed classes 1-5) using latent class modelling of tooth surface-level caries experience. Subsequent experience of caries was assessed using the decayed, missing and filled surfaces indices (dmfs/DMFS) at follow-up visits, and compared between ECC subtypes using logistic and negative binomial regression modelling.

Results: The study included 128 355 children who had 3 or more dental visits spanning at least 5 years post-baseline. Of these children, 31 919 had caries at the initial visit. Baseline ECC subtype was associated with differences in subsequent disease experience. As an example, 83% of children who had a severe form of ECC at age 5 went on to have caries in the permanent dentition by the end of the study, compared to 51% of children who were caries-free at age 5 (adjusted odds ratio of 4.9 for new disease at their third follow-up).

Conclusion: ECC subtypes assigned at a baseline visit are associated with differences in subsequent caries experience in both primary and permanent teeth. This suggests that the development and future validation of an ECC classification can be used in addition to current prediction tools to help identify children at high risk of developing new caries lesions throughout childhood and adolescence.