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Background: Childhood caries and obesity are complex chronic diseases with negative health outcomes.

Aim: This study sought a risk profile for childhood caries and overweight.

Design: Children were recruited into a longitudinal prospective cohort study. Caries and overweight characteristics were obtained at baseline, 6, 12, and 18 months. Sequential data modeling steps determined a disease risk profile.

Results: At baseline, 50% of the children (n = 194, 3.0 to 6.9 years) had caries; 24% were overweight, of whom 50% had caries. Correlation analysis separated child characteristics from household circumstances. Principal component modeling separated child snacking from meal-eating patterns, and household smoking from parent education variables. Baseline caries and overweight were not associated, but they grouped together in the modeling of composite features. Forty-five percent of children showed caries progression, 29% overweight progression, and 10% progression of both diseases. The strongest predictors of progression were disease presence, household-based characteristics, and sugary drinks. Children with caries and overweight progression shared multiple child- and household-based features.

Conclusion: Individually, caries and overweight were not associated. Children with progression of both conditions shared a profile and multiple risk characteristics suggesting these findings could be useful in assessing the risk for the most extreme cases of caries and overweight.