Taking the beat of the Arctic: are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate?Wildlife Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, SK, Saskatoon, Canada.
Environment and Natural Resources, Government of Northwest Territories, NT, Yellowknife, Canada.
Department of Wildlife, Fish, Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden; Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Department of Terrestrial Ecology, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Norway.
Department of Terrestrial Ecology, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Norway.
Parks Canada, Western Arctic Field Unit, NT, Inuvik, Canada.
UMR 6249 Chrono-Environnement, CNRS, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Francheville, France; Groupe de recherche en Écologie Arctique, Francheville, France.
Terrestrial Population Dynamics, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Helsinki, Finland.
Department of Wildlife, Fish, Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden.
Laplandskiy Nature Reserve, Murmansk Region, Monchegorsk, Russian Federation.
Retired, Moscow, Russia.
Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT - The Arctic University of Norway, Alta, Norway; Department of Biology, Section of Ecology, University of Turku, Turku, Finland.
Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT - The Arctic University of Norway, Alta, Norway; Department of Biology, Section of Ecology, University of Turku, Turku, Finland.
Snow Leopard Trust, WA, Seattle, United States.
Groupe de recherche en Écologie Arctique, Francheville, France; Chair for Nature Conservation and Landscape Ecology, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany.
Wildlife Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, ON, Ottawa, Canada.
Arctic Research Station of Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Ural Branch, Labytnangi, Russian Federation.
Arctic Research Station of Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Ural Branch, Labytnangi, Russian Federation.
Department of Ecoscience and Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark.
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2024 (Engelska)Ingår i: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences, ISSN 0962-8452, E-ISSN 1471-2954, Vol. 291, nr 2016, artikel-id 20232361Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]
Reports of fading vole and lemming population cycles and persisting low populations in some parts of the Arctic have raised concerns about the spread of these fundamental changes to tundra food web dynamics. By compiling 24 unique time series of lemming population fluctuations across the circumpolar region, we show that virtually all populations displayed alternating periods of cyclic/non-cyclic fluctuations over the past four decades. Cyclic patterns were detected 55% of the time (n = 649 years pooled across sites) with a median periodicity of 3.7 years, and non-cyclic periods were not more frequent in recent years. Overall, there was an indication for a negative effect of warm spells occurring during the snow onset period of the preceding year on lemming abundance. However, winter duration or early winter climatic conditions did not differ on average between cyclic and non-cyclic periods. Analysis of the time series shows that there is presently no Arctic-wide collapse of lemming cycles, even though cycles have been sporadic at most sites during the last decades. Although non-stationary dynamics appears a common feature of lemming populations also in the past, continued warming in early winter may decrease the frequency of periodic irruptions with negative consequences for tundra ecosystems.
Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Royal Society, 2024. Vol. 291, nr 2016, artikel-id 20232361
Nyckelord [en]
Arctic tundra, climate warming, melt–freeze events, population dynamics, small mammals, transient dynamics
Nationell ämneskategori
Ekologi Klimatvetenskap
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-221553DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2023.2361ISI: 001161940700006PubMedID: 38351802Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85185209293OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-221553DiVA, id: diva2:1842710
2024-03-062024-03-062025-02-01Bibliografiskt granskad