Umeå universitets logga

umu.sePublikationer
Ändra sökning
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
When will AI transform society?: Swedish public predictions on AI development timelines
Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Sociologiska institutionen.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-3857-4398
Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Sociologiska institutionen.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-4203-5394
Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Sociologiska institutionen.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-2696-9517
(Engelska)Manuskript (preprint) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

This study investigates public expectations regarding the likelihood and timing of major artificial intelligence (AI) developments among Swedes. Through a mixed-mode survey (web/paper) of 1,026 respondents, we examined expectations across six key scenarios: medical breakthroughs, mass unemployment, democratic deterioration, living standard improvements, artificial general intelligence (AGI), and uncontrollable superintelligent AI. Findings reveal strong consensus on AI-driven medical breakthroughs (82.6%), while expectations for other major developments are significantly lower, ranging from 40.9% for mass unemployment down to 28.4% for AGI. Timeline expectations varied significantly, with major medical advances anticipated within 6-10 years, while more transformative developments like AGI were projected beyond 20 years. Latent class analysis identified three distinct groups: optimists (46.7%), ambivalents (42.2%), and skeptics (11.2%). The optimist group showed higher levels of self-rated AI knowledge and education, while gender differences were also observed across classes. The study addresses a critical gap in understanding temporal expectations of AI development among the general public, offering insights for policymakers and stakeholders. 

Nyckelord [en]
artificial intelligence, public perception, temporal expectations, societal impact
Nationell ämneskategori
Sociologi (Exklusive socialt arbete, socialantropologi, demografi och kriminologi) Teknik och samhälle
Forskningsämne
sociologi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-237319DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2504.04180OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-237319DiVA, id: diva2:1950507
Tillgänglig från: 2025-04-08 Skapad: 2025-04-08 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-04-08Bibliografiskt granskad

Open Access i DiVA

Fulltext saknas i DiVA

Övriga länkar

Förlagets fulltext

Person

Fors Connolly, FilipHjerm, MikaelKalucza, Sara

Sök vidare i DiVA

Av författaren/redaktören
Fors Connolly, FilipHjerm, MikaelKalucza, Sara
Av organisationen
Sociologiska institutionen
Sociologi (Exklusive socialt arbete, socialantropologi, demografi och kriminologi)Teknik och samhälle

Sök vidare utanför DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetricpoäng

doi
urn-nbn
Totalt: 209 träffar
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf