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INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) within sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is increasing. Despite the pathophysiology of T2D differing by ethnicity and sex, risk stratification and guidelines for the prevention of T2D are generic, relying on evidence from studies including predominantly Europeans. Accordingly, this study aims to develop ethnic-specific and sex-specific risk prediction models for the early detection of dysglycaemia (impaired glucose tolerance and T2D) to inform clinically feasible, culturally acceptable and cost-effective risk management and prevention strategies using dietary modification in SSA and European populations.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This multinational collaboration will include the prospective cohort data from two African cohorts, the Middle-Aged Soweto Cohort from South Africa and the Research on Obesity and Diabetes among African Migrants Prospective cohort from Ghana and migrants living in Europe, and a Swedish cohort, the Pre-Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study. Targeted proteomics, as well as targeted and untargeted metabolomics, will be performed at baseline to discover known and novel ethnic-specific and sex-specific biomarkers that predict incident dysglycaemia in the different longitudinal cohorts. Dietary patterns that explain maximum variation in the biomarker profiles and that associate with dysglycaemia will be identified in the SSA and European cohorts and used to build the prototypes for dietary interventions to prevent T2D. A comparative cost-effectiveness analysis of the dietary interventions will be estimated in the different populations. Finally, the perceptions of at-risk participants and healthcare providers regarding ethnic-specific and sex-specific dietary recommendations for the prevention of T2D will be assessed using focus group discussions and in-depth interviews in South Africa, Ghana, Germany (Ghanaian migrants) and Sweden.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical clearance has been obtained from all participating sites. The study results will be disseminated at scientific conferences and in journal publications, and through community engagement events and diabetes organisations in the respective countries.