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Trading time seasonality in commodity futures: an opportunity for arbitrage in the natural gas and crude oil markets?
Adam Smith Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom; Department of Economics, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Lillehammer, Norway.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3288-0164
Department of Economics, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Lillehammer, Norway.
Department of Economics, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Lillehammer, Norway.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3424-4401
Department of Economics, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Lillehammer, Norway.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0757-6857
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2022 (English)In: Energy Economics, ISSN 0140-9883, E-ISSN 1873-6181, Vol. 115, article id 106324Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper we investigate energy futures contracts and the presence of a type of seasonality, that has been given very little to no attention in the literature —- we call it trading time seasonality. Such seasonality is exposed through the futures trading time, not its maturity time, nor the underlying spot price. As we show, it can be linked to seasonality in the pricing kernel, but the latter cannot explain it fully. Its relationship to arbitrage and CAPM violation is investigated, and its presence is confirmed for natural gas and crude oil futures markets using descriptive analysis, Kruskal–Wallis testing and CAPM methodology. We provide an informal discussion around possible reasons for the effect and identify seasonal hedging pressure and market sentiments as such.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2022. Vol. 115, article id 106324
Keywords [en]
Futures, Crude oil, Natural gas, Seasonality, Arbitrage
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-238864DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106324ISI: 000869265400009Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85139328978OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-238864DiVA, id: diva2:1958766
Available from: 2025-05-16 Created: 2025-05-16 Last updated: 2025-05-20Bibliographically approved

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Ewald, Christian Oliver

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Ewald, Christian OliverLien, GudbrandStørdal, Ståle
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Citation style
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