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Pricing commodity futures and determining risk premia in a three factor model with stochastic volatility: the case of Brent crude oil
International Business School and School of Finance, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, China.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6521-921X
Adam Smith Business School-Economics, Gilbert Scott Building, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK; Department of Economics, Inland University of Applied Sciences, Lillehammer, Norway.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3288-0164
College of Economics and Institute of Finance, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6697-2019
Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.
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2021 (English)In: Annals of Operations Research, ISSN 0254-5330, E-ISSN 1572-9338, Vol. 313, no 1, p. 29-46Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper we introduce a three factor model to price commodity futures contracts. This model allows both the spot price volatility and convenience yield to be stochastic, nevertheless futures prices can be obtained conveniently in closed form. Further, we use Brent crude oil futures prices to calibrate the model using the extended Kalman filter. In comparison to the benchmark model for commodity futures pricing, the Schwartz two-factor model, our three factor model shows a superior fit for contracts that have longer maturities. We further assess risk premia in Brent crude oil through the two models and observe that the Schwartz two-factor model over-predicts risk premia in comparison to the new model.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2021. Vol. 313, no 1, p. 29-46
Keywords [en]
Commodity futures, Stochastic volatility, Multi-factor models
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-238866DOI: 10.1007/s10479-021-04198-7ISI: 000673860500001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85110073797OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-238866DiVA, id: diva2:1958769
Available from: 2025-05-16 Created: 2025-05-16 Last updated: 2025-05-19Bibliographically approved

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Ewald, Christian

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Chen, JilongEwald, ChristianOuyang, Ruolan
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CiteExportLink to record
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