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Analytic formulas for futures and options for a linear quadratic jump diffusion model with seasonal stochastic volatility and convenience yield: do fish jump?
Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, University Avenue, G12 8QQ Glasgow, United Kingdom; Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Lillehammer, Norway.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3288-0164
School of Finance, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, 611130, China.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3463-6774
2021 (English)In: European Journal of Operational Research, ISSN 0377-2217, E-ISSN 1872-6860, Vol. 294, no 2, p. 801-815Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this article we derive tractable analytic solutions for futures and options prices for a linear-quadratic jump-diffusion model with seasonal adjustments in stochastic volatility and convenience yield. We then calibrate our model to data from the fish pool futures market, using the extended Kalman filter and a quasi-maximum likelihood estimator and alternatively using an implied-state quasi-maximum likelihood estimator. We find no statistical evidence of jumps. However, we do find evidence for positive correlation between salmon spot prices and volatility, seasonality in volatility and convenience yield. In addition we observe a positive relationship between seasonal risk premium and uncertainty of EU salmon demand. We further show that our model produces option prices that are conform with the observation of implied volatility smiles and skews. Our work connects to a number of results that have recently appeared in the Operations Research literature.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2021. Vol. 294, no 2, p. 801-815
Keywords [en]
Finance, Derivatives, Jump-Diffusion models, Kalman filter, Quasi-Maximum likelihood
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-238870DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2021.02.004ISI: 000654955500027Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85101647250OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-238870DiVA, id: diva2:1958775
Available from: 2025-05-16 Created: 2025-05-16 Last updated: 2025-05-20Bibliographically approved

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Ewald, Christian Oliver

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