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Purpose: Diagnosing carotid near-occlusion (CNO) with colour duplex ultrasound (CDU) is challenging. We hypothesised that CNO is associated with a reduced distal internal carotid artery (ICA) velocity and aimed to assess if distal velocity is able to diagnose CNO accurately. If not, we aimed to develop CDU rule-out and rule-in criteria to diagnose CNO.

Methods: This is a prospective cross-sectional study in consecutive participants with suspected ≥ 50% carotid stenosis on CT angiography (CTA). CDU velocities in the common carotid artery, the stenosis and distal to the stenosis were examined. CTAs were assessed for CNO, serving as a reference test. If no CDU parameter was both sensitive and specific for CNO, rule-out (98% sensitive) and rule-in (99% specific) criteria were created.

Results: Of the 315 included participants with ≥ 50% stenosis, 190 (60%) were conventional ≥ 50% stenosis and 125 (40%) CNO. No CDU parameter was both sensitive and specific for CNO. The best exclusion criteria were stenosis end diastolic velocity (EDV) ≤ 63 cm/s and/or distal peak systolic velocity (PSV) > 23 cm/s, seen in 115 (38%) participants. The best rule-in criteria were stenosis EDV ≥ 280 cm/s and/or distal PSV ≤ 23 cm/s, seen in 35 (12%) participants. Of the remaining participants, 143 (47%) were uncertain (74 CNOs) and 9 (3%) were misdiagnosed as carotid occlusion (all CNOs).

Conclusions: CDU alone cannot diagnose CNO but can rule in or rule out CNO in half of participants with ≥ 50% stenosis. These criteria are intended for inclusion in an algorithm, sorting cases needing further exams, such as CTA and/or phase-contrast magnetic resonance angiography.