Umeå universitets logga

Purpose: COVID-19 has been extensively researched; however, the lack of standardized COVID-19 severity categorization in register-based research complicates comparison of studies. The WHO COVID-19 Clinical Progression Scale is a standardized disease severity tool for clinical data, though not adapted to data available in health registries. We aimed to develop and validate such a novel categorization with international applicability.

Methods: The WHO Clinical Progression Scale was translated to a severity index utilizing ICD-and procedure-codes from outpatient, inpatient, intensive care, and mortality registries using the adult Swedish population and SARS-CoV-2 positive-test data (January 2020 – July 2022). Cox proportional hazards were applied to determine whether increasing severity correlates with mortality in COVID-19 patients compared to the population.

Results: The WHO-Scale was translated to ten categories reflecting the increasing need for advanced care, encompassing 8,245,474 individuals including 1,981,946 SARS-CoV-2 infections. Fatal COVID-19 cases were older with more comorbidities. Those receiving mechanical ventilation and ECMO were younger with fewer comorbidities. Among survivors beyond 30 days, 90-day all-cause mortality increased with severity using category zero (no laboratory-verified SARS-CoV-2) as reference. Mortality was lowest for patients without health care adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities and socio-economic variables (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13–1.22). Those hospitalized >5 days had higher mortality (aHR 5.83, 5.5–6.17). Those requiring ECMO/ ECLS had the highest mortality (aHR 593.54, 317.77–1108.65).

Conclusion: The novel COVID-19 severity index associated with all-cause 90-day mortality and aligned with previous literature. This index will enable comparative studies of COVID-19, which is important for public health policies and development of clinical guidelines. This is an innovative epidemiologic tool with potential applicability in all countries with centralised health registers. The index also has the potential to be used for other infectious diseases and in real-time data for modelling predictions.