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Intra-day seasonality and abnormal returns in the Brent crude oil futures market
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics. Business School, University of Inland, Lillehammer, Norway; Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3288-0164
Business School, University of Inland, Lillehammer, Norway.
School of Economics and Institute of Finance, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, People’s Republic of China.
Business School, University of Inland, Lillehammer, Norway.
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2025 (English)In: Quantitative finance, ISSN 1469-7688, E-ISSN 1469-7696, Vol. 25, no 11Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We investigate intra-day seasonal patterns in Brent crude oil futures traded at the Intercontinental Exchange in London. Our data cover tick data for futures of various maturities from January 2010 to October 2021, a database covering 130 Gigabytes of oil transactions. We convert these data into one-minute data and observe statistically significant intra-day seasonal patterns with peaks and bottoms at particular times of the day, depending on maturities and whether or not spreads are considered. In the second part of our analysis, we explore whether these systematic patterns can be exploited to create arbitrage-like long-short strategies, going long and short at particular times during the day. The answer is yes; even when accounting for realistic transaction costs and margin requirements, some of the proposed strategies can create consistent positive and significant CAPM alphas.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Routledge, 2025. Vol. 25, no 11
Keywords [en]
rent crude oil, Futures, Seasonality, High-frequency trading, Intra-day patterns, Abnor-mal returns, Arbitrage, Large data
National Category
Economics and Business
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-242904DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2025.2535479ISI: 001545333800001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105012603339OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-242904DiVA, id: diva2:1987990
Funder
The Kempe Foundations, JCSMK22-0082The Kempe Foundations, JCSMK-00821Available from: 2025-08-09 Created: 2025-08-09 Last updated: 2025-12-11Bibliographically approved

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Ewald, Christian Oliver

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