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On the predictive power of food commodity futures prices in forecasting inflation
Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of Western Ontario, London, Canada.
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics. Inland School of Business and Social Sciences, University of Inland, Lillehammer, Norway; Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3288-0164
Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
2025 (English)In: Quantitative finance, ISSN 1469-7688, E-ISSN 1469-7696, Vol. 25, no 12, p. 1957-1969Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Within the context of forecasting U.S. inflation, this study explores the predictive power of food commodities futures prices, focusing on enhancing the precision of both short- and long-term forecasts. We develop single commodity models for twelve different food commodities and also construct two aggregated models: a simple component model and a Principal Component Analysis (PCA)-based model, both utilizing price indices of the selected commodities. Monthly futures data from 1996 to 2023 for the nearest maturity dates are segmented into in-sample fitting and out-of-sample forecasting, covering forecast horizons of 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. Our findings indicate that aggregated models, particularly the PCA-based method, exhibit superior forecasting performance. Furthermore, to verify model robustness, we conduct parallel forecasts using spot prices and perform subsample analyses. Collectively, these results underscore the predictive power of commodity futures for forecasting food inflation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Routledge, 2025. Vol. 25, no 12, p. 1957-1969
Keywords [en]
commodity markets, Food commodities, futures prices, inflation forecasting
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-243533DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2025.2536611ISI: 001549251200001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105013168704OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-243533DiVA, id: diva2:1994620
Available from: 2025-09-03 Created: 2025-09-03 Last updated: 2026-02-11Bibliographically approved

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Ewald, Christian Oliver

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CiteExportLink to record
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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
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More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf