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Strongly empirical modelling
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Computing Science. Centre for Policy Modelling, London, United Kingdom; UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.
Department of Humanities, Social and Political Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
School of Media Communication and Sociology, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom.
2025 (English)In: Advances in Social Simulation: Proceedings of the 19th Social Simulation Conference, Cracow, Poland, 16-20 September 2024 / [ed] Marcin Czupryna; Bogumił Kamiński; Harko Verhagen, Cham: Springer, 2025, p. 99-111Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The paper argues for, and discusses, the practice of “Strong Empirical Modelling”. This involves a shift in effort from the internals of a model towards how the model relates to observational data. This kind of modelling is contrasted to theory-based modelling which, it is argued, will not be sufficient for making substantive progress understanding social phenomena in a scientific manner, due to the inherent weakness of social theory. However, there are different ways of relating data to modelling, so these are reviewed and criteria for their strength and the difficulties discussed. A sketch of how to define the empirical strength of a model is discussed, and the piece ends with a suggested system of “Modelling Ready Levels” to eliminate confusion about the state of modelling projects.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cham: Springer, 2025. p. 99-111
Series
Conference of the European Social Simulation Association, ISSN 2213-8684, E-ISSN 2213-8692
Keywords [en]
Agent-based modelling, Data, Empirical grounding, Evidence, Social simulation, Theory
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-248296DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-91782-0_7Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105025984127ISBN: 9783031917813 (print)ISBN: 9783031917820 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-248296DiVA, id: diva2:2028348
Conference
19th Conference of the European Social Simulation Association, ESSA 2024, Cracow, Poland, 16-20 September 2024
Available from: 2026-01-14 Created: 2026-01-14 Last updated: 2026-01-19Bibliographically approved

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Edmonds, Bruce

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