Umeå University's logo

Aims: To investigate predictive factors in patients with non-curable malignant hilar biliary obstruction (mHBO) and identify those with a life expectancy of 30 days or less, who would not benefit from palliative biliary drainage.

Materials and methods: A retrospective analysis of consecutive palliative patients undergoing percutaneous or endoscopic biliary drainage for mHBO at Groote Schuur and Tygerberg Hospitals, Cape Town, between 1 January 2015 and 1 January 2023. Demographic and baseline clinical parameters, laboratory test results, tumour characteristics and intervention type were compared in patients who survived ≤ 30 days to those who survived > 30 days after index intervention.

Results: A total of 294 patients were included in the study, of whom 135 survived ≤ 30 days and 159 > 30 days. Regression analysis using a Cox proportional hazard model showed that Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥ 2, strictures secondary to hepatocellular carcinoma, serum levels of albumin < 30 g/L and serum levels of total and conjugated bilirubin > 250 μmol/L predicted survival of ≤ 30 days.

Conclusions: These predictive factors should be considered by the multidisciplinary team regarding the decision to perform biliary drainage during end-of-life care or rather proceed to solely medical and symptomatic relief in patients with non-curable mHBO.