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OBJECTIVES: To estimate the interval cancer incidence, its determinants and the episode sensitivity in the Norrbotten Mammography Screening Programme (NMSP).

SETTING: Since 1989, women aged 40-74 years (n = 55,000) have been invited to biennial screening by the NMSP, Norrbotten county, Sweden.

METHODS: Data on 1047 invasive breast cancers from six screening rounds of the NMSP (1989-2002) were collected. We estimated the invasive interval cancer rates, rate ratios and the episode sensitivity using the detection and incidence methods. A linear Poisson-model was used to analyse association between interval cancer incidence and sensitivity.

RESULTS: 768 screen-detected and 279 interval cancer cases were identified. The rate ratio of interval cancer decreased with age. The 50-59 year age group showed the highest rate ratio (RR = 0.52, 95% CI 0.41-0.65) and the 70-74 year age group the lowest (RR = 0.23, 95% CI 0.15-0.36). The rate ratios for the early (0-12 months) and late (13-24 months) interval cancers were similar (RR = 0.18, 95% CI 0.15-0.22 and 0.20, 95% CI 0.17-0.24). There was a significantly lower interval cancer incidence in the prevalence round as compared with the incidence rounds. According to the detection method the episode sensitivity increased with age from 57% in the age group 40-49 years to 84% in the age group 70-74 years. The corresponding figures for the incidence method were 50% and 77%, respectively.

CONCLUSION: Our study showed an interval cancer incidence of 38% and the episode sensitivity of 62-73%, depending on the method of calculation. Our results are of clinically acceptable level and concert with the reference values of the European guidelines.

OBJECTIVES: To study the effectiveness of service screening with mammography in Northern Sweden.

SETTING: Two counties which invited women aged 40-74 years to service screening with mammography were compared with two counties where service screening started 5-7 years later. There were 109,000 and 77,000 women in the study and control counties, respectively.

METHODS: Cohorts in the study group were defined to include only breast cancer cases diagnosed after their first invitation to screening. Two outcome measures for breast cancer mortality were used; excess mortality and underlying cause of death (UCD). Detection mode was used to estimate the efficacy of screening for those women who actually attended screening. The cohorts were followed for 11 years.

RESULTS: The relative rate (RR) of breast cancer death as excess mortality and UCD for women aged 40-74 years invited to screening, compared with women not yet invited, was 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56-0.87) and 0.74 (95% CI 0.62-0.88), respectively. The largest effect was seen in women aged 40-49 years (RR = 0.64 and RR = 0.62 for excess mortality and UCD, respectively). RR in age 40-74 years for women actually screened was 0.65 (95% CI 0.51-0.84) and 0.70 (95% CI 0.57-0.86) for excess mortality and UCD, respectively. The number of women needed to screen to save one life was 912 after 11 years of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms previous findings in the earlier follow-up and indicates a long-term reduction of breast cancer mortality by 26-30%. The efficacy among those who actually attended screening was about 5% larger.