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PURPOSE: This study investigated whether there is a correlation between time-trial performance and competitive performance capacity of male and female junior cross-country skiers and sought to explain gender-specific competitive performance capacity through multiple regression modeling.

METHODS: The International Ski Federation's (FIS) junior ranking points for distance (FISdist) and sprint (FISsprint) competitions were used as performance parameters. A total of 38 elite junior (18.5 ± 1.0 years old) cross-country skiers (24 men and 14 women) completed three time-trial tests: a 3 km level running time trial (TTRun), a 2 km moderate uphill (1.2º slope) roller skiing time trial using the double poling technique (TTDP), and a 2 km uphill (2.8º slope) roller skiing time trial using the diagonal stride technique (TTDiag). The correlations were investigated using Pearson correlation analysis, and regression models were created using multiple linear regression analysis.

RESULTS: For men, FISsprint and FISdist were correlated with the times for TTRun, TTDP, and TTDiag (all P < 0.001). For women, FISsprint was correlated with the times for TTRun (P < 0.05), TTDP (P < 0.01), and TTDiag (P < 0.01), whereas FISdist was correlated with the times for TTDP (P < 0.01) and TTDiag (P < 0.05). The models developed for FISdist and FISsprint explained 73.9-82.3% of the variance in the performance capacity of male junior cross-country skiers. No statistically valid regression model was found for the women.

CONCLUSIONS: The running and roller skiing time trials are useful for the accurate prediction of the performance capacity of junior cross-country skiers.