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OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between meeting behavioural goals and diabetes incidence over 10years in a large, representative Swedish population.

METHODS: Population-based prospective cohort study of 32,120 individuals aged 35 to 55years participating in a health promotion intervention in Västerbotten County, Sweden (1990 to 2013). Participants underwent an oral glucose tolerance test, clinical measures, and completed diet and activity questionnaires. Poisson regression quantified the association between achieving six behavioural goals at baseline - body mass index (BMI) <25kg/m(2), moderate physical activity, non-smoker, fat intake <30% of energy, fibre intake ≥15g/4184kJ and alcohol intake ≤20g/day - and diabetes incidence over 10years.

RESULTS: Median interquartile range (IQR) follow-up time was 9.9 (0.3) years; 2211 individuals (7%) developed diabetes. Only 4.4% of participants met all 6 goals (n=1245) and compared to these individuals, participants meeting 0/1 goals had a 3.74 times higher diabetes incidence (95% confidence interval (CI)=2.50 to 5.59), adjusting for sex, age, calendar period, education, family history of diabetes, history of myocardial infarction and long-term illness. If everyone achieved at least four behavioural goals, 14.1% (95% CI: 11.7 to 16.5%) of incident diabetes cases might be avoided.

CONCLUSION: Interventions promoting the achievement of behavioural goals in the general population could significantly reduce diabetes incidence.