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  • 1.
    Adjei, Evans
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Andersson, Lars Fredrik
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Unit of Economic History.
    Eriksson, Rikard
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Scocco, Sandra
    Regional labour market effects of immigration on low-skilled workers: the case of Sweden 1990–20032021In: International Journal of Social Economics, ISSN 0306-8293, E-ISSN 1758-6712, Vol. 48, no 3, p. 456-476Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of immigration on the labour market outcomes of low-educated natives (i.e. residents without a university diploma). Using the labour market competition theory, which argues that the labour market effects of natives depend on the skill set of immigrants, the paper addresses whether immigrants are complementary to or substitutes for native workers.

    Design/methodology/approach: Longitudinal matched employer–employee data on Sweden are used to estimate how low-educated natives, in regions experiencing the greatest influx of refugees from the Balkan wars, responded to this supply shock with regard to real wages, employment and job mobility between 1990 and 2003.

    Findings: First, the analysis shows that low-educated native workers respond to the arrival of immigrants with an increase in real wages. Second, although employment prospects in general worsened for low-skilled workers in most regions, this is not attributable to the regions experiencing the largest supply shock. Third, there are indications that low-skilled natives in immigration-rich regions are more likely to change workplace, particularly in combination with moving upwards in the wage distribution.

    Originality/value: Rather than seeing an emergence of the commonly perceived displacement mechanism when an economy is subject to a supply shock, the regional findings suggest that high inflows of immigrants tend to induce a mechanism that pulls native workers upwards in the wage distribution. This is important, as the proportion of immigrants is seldom evenly distributed within a nation.

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  • 2.
    Adjei, Evans
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Eriksson, Rikard
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Family co-occurrence and firm productivity2021In: Family Business and Regional Development / [ed] Basco R, Stough R, Suwala L, Routledge, 2021, p. 83-102Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Our book chapter examines the effects of family co-occurrence (i.e. the presence of familial relationships inside a firm, including between co-workers and between employees and the owner) on firm productivity. Analysing a set of Swedish firms over the 1995–2012 period, we find a positive and significant relationship between family co-occurrence and firm productivity. This positive relationship is particularly evident in smaller regions characterized by a more specialized industry mix. When looking at the specific case of family co-occurrence involving familial relationships with firm owners, we find that the positive productivity effect of familial relationships with firm owners varies depending on the type of family tie. While familial co-occurrence involving partners or spouses is positive and abates the negative effects of employees having very similar or very diverse skills (e.g. based on education), family co-occurrence involving siblings is pretty much non-existent. In sum, our findings suggest that family co-occurrence in workplaces does influence productivity and that the positive or negative impact of familial relationships on productivity is contingent on the type of family tie, the family members’ skills, and the regional context.

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  • 3.
    Adjei, Evans Korang
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography.
    Eriksson, Rikard
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Lundberg, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM). Department of Economics and Centre for Regional Science (CERUM) Umeå University.
    The effects of a large industrial investment on employment in a remote and sparsely populated area using a synthetic control approach2023In: Regional Science Policy & Practice, E-ISSN 1757-7802, Vol. 15, no 7, p. 1553-1576Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article examines the impact of establishing a large industrial manufacturing entity on employment and the labor market in a remote, sparsely populated part of Sweden, focusing on how it affects total regional employment because industrial policies aiming to attract investment and reignite employment in stagnating regions have been a central policy tool. The empirical analysis is based on the synthetic control method, which enables the estimation of place-specific causal effects. Using aggregated microdata from 1995 to 2019, the results indicate that employment in the treated region, as compared to synthetic regions, has been negatively affected by the manufacturing establishment. However, the short- and long-term effects differ across different labor market segments (same, related, and unrelated industries) and according to firm size. Overall, the findings suggest that large manufacturing investment does not necessarily have a positive or instantaneous impact on total regional employment. It does, however, provide some potential for long-term diversification because employment in related activities grows in the long run.

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  • 4.
    Adjei, Evans
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Morales, Diana
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography.
    Charting paths to decolonise economic geography2024In: Regions, ISSN 2167-4582, Vol. 18Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A previous publication advocated for integrating decolonial perspectives as a transversal principle to the practice and progress of economic geography (Morales, 2024). In this paper, we propose tools to achieve this goal, highlighting the opportunities that the expansion and diversification of the subdiscipline presents for doing so, anecdotally, we observe increased representation of women and individuals from diverse backgrounds at major conferences, in graduate schools, and as early career researchers (we are yet to witness such diversification at more advanced career stages). This presents a great opportunity to expand our theorisations, engage with different expertise and backgrounds, and learn from different geographies. However, diversifying the pool of economic geographers is not enough, we need to challenge, revise, and transform the structures, practices, and ideologies that have perpetuated colonial legacies in the areas of theory, curriculum and pedagogy, methodology, and the dissemination of research, in both education and practice. This may be an uncomfortable and lengthy, but necessary task. Here we propose some ideas on how to start.

  • 5.
    Adjei Korang, Evans
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Eriksson, Rikard
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Skogen som resurs in Region Västernorrland: näringslivsnalys 2002-20152019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Med utgångspunkt i perspektivet att ekonomisk utveckling i grund och botten är betingat på de kompetenser som används i produktionen av varor och tjänster, har denna rapport analyserat skogsnäringarnas utveckling i Västernorrland 2002-2015 med avseende på sysselsättning, antal arbetsgivare och arbetsinkomster. Särskilt fokus ligger på hur Västernorrlands skogsindustri är kopplad till övriga delar av näringslivet i form av det humankapital som de delar med varandra. Detta görs empiriskt genom analyser av regionens skill-relatedness, det vill säga flöden av arbetskraft mellan sektorer i regionen, för att grafiskt visa i vilken grad olika sektorer är relaterade till varandra. Utifrån argumentet att humankapital är en central resurs för regional utveckling låter vi data visa hur regionens skogsnäringar är kopplade till övriga näringslivet, och därigenom belysa branschöverskridande relationer bortom gängse föreställningar om kopplingar drivna av det officiella industriklassificeringssystemet. 

    Även om inkomstutvecklingen och andelen kvinnor i Västernorrland följer riksgenomsnittet har både antalet företag och sysselsatta utvecklats betydligt sämre i Västernorrland. Generella utbildningsnivån har ökat både i riket och i regionen, men Västernorrland har generellt en lägre utbildningsnivå. Skogsnäringarna i Västernorrland bryter delvis mot detta generella regionala mönster. Både antalet sysselsatta och antalet arbetsställen inom skogsnäringarna har kraftigt minskat i antal och tvärtemot regionens generella utveckling har också andelen högutbildade (med minst treårig universitetsexamen) minskat liksom andelen kvinnor. Trots dessa kraftiga rationaliseringar på personalsidan är utvecklingen för skogsnäringarna inom Västernorrland betydligt mindre negativ än för riket i övrigt. Det gäller framförallt inkomstnivåerna bland de anställda. Inkomstnivåerna i Sveriges skogsnäring har sjunkit i relativa termer men ökat med drygt 20% i Västernorrland och ligger 2015 på en något högre nivå än övriga näringar i regionen. Det kan i sin tur tyda på en positiv omvandling mot mer kvalificerade arbetstillfällen, även om det också inneburit kraftiga rationaliseringar. 

    För att belysa hur skogsnäringarna är inbäddade i regionens struktur av kompetenser har vi kartlagt graden av specialisering (hur representerad en industri är i regionen relativ i riket), graden av relatedness(hur väl en industri är kopplad till andra industrier genom personalflöden), och graden av inbäddning (förekomsten av andra industrier i regionen som delar liknande kompetensresurser). När det gäller den relativa närvaron av skogsnäringar i regionen utifrån antalet sysselsatta finner vi att ingen av skogsnäringarna har en betydande relativ specialisering i Västernorrland. Det är endast tillverkning av wellpapp och pappers- och pappförpackningar som har en specialiseringsgrad över 1 (dvs högre än riksgenomsnittet). Det innebär med andra ord att trots ett relativt högt bidrag till regionalt förädlingsvärde och skatter är näringarna underrepresenterade på regionens arbetsmarknad. Det återspeglas bland annat i den relativt kraftiga minskningen av sysselsatta och arbetsställen vi identifierat (och som pågått långt innan den period denna rapport analyserar) men också den relativt kraftiga ökningen av inkomster (högre än riksgenomsnittet för skogsnäringarna och i paritet med regionen i övrigt). Skogsnäringarna har med andra ord genomfört produktivitetshöjande rationaliseringar vilket i sig kan gynna regionen.

    Utifrån vårt analytiska ramverk är det dock aningen mer problematiskt att de relativt få arbetsgivarna inom skogsnäringarna också är relativt isolerade i regionen utifrån ett kompetensresursperspektiv. Det är endast tillverkning av andra byggnads- och inredningssnickerier, skogsförvaltning, drivning och pappers- och papptillverkning som har en genomsnittlig koppling till andra näringar i regionen över gränsvärdet för en kompetensrelaterad verksamhet. Detta återspeglas också i hur inbäddad skogsnäringen är utifrån den relativa koncentrationen av kompetensrelaterade verksamheter. Det är endast ovan nämnda fyra näringar som är tydligt inbäddade i regionens näringslivsstruktur, och endast två (pappers- och papptillverkning och tillverkning av byggnads- och inredningssnickerier) som har ett inbäddningsindex över regionens medelvärde. Det innebär att skogsnäringarna generellt är relativt perifera när vi pratar om vilka kompetensresurser skogsnäringen delar med övriga regionen. Dock är teknisk konsultverksamhet direkt eller indirekt relaterat till flertalet skogsnäringar, vilket kan peka på ökade tekniknivåer och ökat behov av tekniska specialistkunskaper. Även om företag kan kompensera för en svag regional inbäddning genom utomregionala nätverk, innebär framförallt en svag inbäddning att det kan vara svårare för arbetskraften att finna nya produktiva uttryck för sina kompetenser i regionen vid framtida rationaliseringar. Det i sin tur kan driva på utflyttning till andra regioner.

    Utifrån en smart specialiseringsagenda drar vi slutsatsen att policyinsatser bör verka för att öka graden av inbäddning för regionens nyckelindustrier då det kan underlätta en framgångsrik omvandling som bygger på regionens redan existerande kompetensresurser. 

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  • 6.
    Adolfsson, Maja
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Baranowska-Rataj, Anna
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Upward wage mobility of low-wage workers: The role of trade unions2023Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    While previous studies have demonstrated the disadvantages of workers who get stuck in low-wage employment, more knowledge is needed about the institutions that facilitate getting better-paid jobs. This paper examines the role of trade unions, taking a cross-country comparative perspective. It uses data on 29 European countries from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions and multilevel modelling techniques. The results suggest that stronger trade unions improve chances for upward wage mobility among low-wage workers. We also find differential effects across population subgroups, with larger benefits among better educated employees and workers in the prime-age. 

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  • 7.
    Agliari, Anna
    et al.
    Catholic University of Milano, Italy.
    Gardini, Laura
    University of Urbino, Italy.
    Puu, Tönu
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Global Bifurcations in Duopoly when the Cournot Point is Destabilized through a Subcritical Neimark Bifurcation2003Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    An adaptive oligopoly model, where the demand function is isoelastic and the competitors operate under constant marginal costs, is considered. The Cournot equilibrium point then loses stability through a subcritical Neimark bifurcation. The present paper focuses some global bifurcations, which precede the Neimark bifurcation, and produce other attractors which coexist with the still attractive Cournot fixed point.

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  • 8.
    Agliari, Anna
    et al.
    Dip. Scienze Economiche e Sociali, Catholic University.
    Gardini, Laura
    Dip. Scienze Economiche, University of Urbino .
    Puu, Tönu
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Global bifurcations in duopoly when the Cournot Point is destabilized through a subcritical Neimark bifurcation2006In: International Game Theory Review, ISSN 0219-1989, Vol. 8, no 1, p. 1-20Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 9.
    Agliari, Anna
    et al.
    Univ Cattolica Sacro Cuore, Ist Econometria & Matematica, Italy.
    Gardini, Laura
    University of Urbino, Dept of Economics, Italy.
    Puu, Tönu
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Global bifurcations of basins in a triopoly game2002In: International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos in Applied Sciences and Engineering, ISSN 0218-1274, Vol. 12, no 10, p. 2175-2207Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A Cournot model based on bounded inverse demand function and constant marginal production costs is studied. The case of three producers is considered and the adjustment process reduces to a three-dimensional noninvertible map in the output of competitors. The analysis of the dynamical behavior of the map is performed by the "critical curve method", extended to the critical surfaces in 3D. By this method, we explain the different bifurcations in the basins of attraction and in the attracting sets. In particular, given the economic application, feasible trajectories are focused, starting from the simple situation of two identical producers and extending the results to the generic case.

  • 10.
    Agliari, Anna
    et al.
    Catholic University, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali, Piacenza, Italy.
    Gardini, Laura
    Dept. Scienze Economiche, University of Urbino, Italy.
    Puu, Tönu
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Some global bifurcations related to the appearance of closed invariant curves2005In: Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, ISSN 0378-4754, E-ISSN 1872-7166, Vol. 68, no 3, p. 201-219Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, we consider a two-dimensional map (a duopoly game) in which the fixed point is destabilized via a subcritical Neimark–Hopf (N–H) bifurcation. Our aim is to investigate, via numerical examples, some global bifurcations associated with the appearance of repelling closed invariant curves involved in the Neimark–Hopf bifurcations. We shall see that the mechanism is not unique, and that it may be related to homoclinic connections of a saddle cycle, that is to a closed invariant curve formed by the merging of a branch of the stable set of the saddle with a branch of the unstable set of the same saddle. This will be shown by analyzing the bifurcations arising inside a periodicity tongue, i.e., a region of the parameter space in which an attracting cycle exists.

  • 11.
    Agliari, Anna
    et al.
    Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali, Catholic University.
    Gardini, Laura
    Dept. Scienze Economiche, University of Urbino.
    Puu, Tönu
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Some global bifurcations related to the apperance of closed invariant curves2005In: Mathematics and Computers in Simulations, ISSN 0378-4754, Vol. 68, no 3, p. 201-219Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, we consider a two-dimensional map (a duopoly game) in which the fixed point is destabilized via a subcritical Neimark–Hopf (N–H) bifurcation. Our aim is to investigate, via numerical examples, some global bifurcations associated with the appearance of repelling closed invariant curves involved in the Neimark–Hopf bifurcations. We shall see that the mechanism is not unique, and that it may be related to homoclinic connections of a saddle cycle, that is to a closed invariant curve formed by the merging of a branch of the stable set of the saddle with a branch of the unstable set of the same saddle. This will be shown by analyzing the bifurcations arising inside a periodicity tongue, i.e., a region of the parameter space in which an attracting cycle exists.

  • 12.
    Agliari, Anna
    et al.
    Catholic University, Faculty of Economics, Milan, Italy.
    Puu, Tönu
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    A Cournot duopoly model with bounded demand2002Book (Other academic)
  • 13.
    Ahl, Steffen
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Schwedenhäppchen: Ein Forschungseisebericht2001Report (Other academic)
  • 14.
    Ahmed, E
    et al.
    Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Egypt.
    Elsadany, AA
    Department of Basic Science, Faculty of Computers and Informatics, Ismailia, Suez Canal University, Egypt; Department of Mathematics, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China.
    Puu, Tönu
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    On Bertrand duopoly game with differentiated goods2015In: Applied Mathematics and Computation, ISSN 0096-3003, E-ISSN 1873-5649, Vol. 251, p. 169-179Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The paper investigates a dynamic Bertrand duopoly with differentiated goods in which boundedly rational firms apply a gradient adjustment mechanism to update their price in each period. The demand functions are derived from an underlying CES utility function. We investigate numerically the dynamical properties of the model. We consider two specific parameterizations for the CES function and study the Nash equilibrium and its local stability in the models. The general finding is that the Nash equilibrium becomes unstable as the speed of adjustment increases. The Nash equilibrium loses stability through a period-doubling bifurcation and the system eventually becomes chaotic either through a series of period-doubling bifurcations or after a Neimark–Sacker bifurcation.

  • 15.
    Aldskogius, Göran
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Urban Policy in the Structural Policy of the European Union2000Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The objective of this paper is to give a short overview of the actual discussionsand actions concerning urban policy in the European Union.No complete picture is given but this survey covers some importantactors and activities. The paper is concentrated on how urban policy isimplemented within the European Union structural policy during thelast ten years, and the period 2000–2006.

    A short overview is also given of discussions on urban policy in otherinternational organisations and in Sweden.

    At the end of the paper there is an attempt to summerize the effectsof the actual discussion about urban policy for the European Unionand for Sweden, in the framework of regional development and structuralpolicy.

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  • 16.
    Amjadi Torshizi, Golnaz
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Environmental and Resource Economics (CERE). STATEC Research (National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies).
    Lundgren, Tommy
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Environmental and Resource Economics (CERE). Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Forest Economic.
    Zhou, Wenchao
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Environmental and Resource Economics (CERE).
    A Dynamic Analysis of Industrial Energy Efficiency and the Rebound Effect2020Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Energy efficiency improvement (EEI) is generally known to be a cost-effective measure for meeting energy, climate and sustainable growth targets. Unfortunately, behavioral responses to such improvements (called energy rebound effects) may reduce the expected savings in energy and emissions from EEI. Hence, the size of this effect should be considered to help set realistic energy and climate targets. Currently there are significant differences in approaches for measuring rebound effect. Here, we used a two-step procedure to measure both short- and long-term energy rebound effects in the Swedish manufacturing industry. In the first step, we used data envelopment analysis (DEA) to obtain energy efficiency scores. In the second step, we estimated energy rebound effects using a dynamic panel regression model. This approach was applied to a firmlevel panel dataset covering all 14 sectors in the Swedish manufacturing industry over the period 1997–2008. We showed that, in the short run, partial rebound effects exist within most of manufacturing sectors, meaning that the rebound effect decreased, but did not totally offset, the energy and emission savings expected from EEI. The long-term rebound effect was smaller than the shortterm effect, implying that within each sector, energy and emission savings due to EEI are larger in the long run compared to the short run.

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  • 17.
    Ancillotti, Mirco
    et al.
    Centre for Research Ethics and Bioethics, Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Uppsala University.
    Nilsson, Elin
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Business Administration. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Nordvall, Anna-Carin
    Department of Business Studies, Uppsala University.
    Oljans, Emma
    Uppsala Global Health Research on Implementation and Sustainability, Department of Women's and Children's Health .
    The Status Quo Problem and the Role of Consumers Against Antimicrobial Resistance2022In: Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, E-ISSN 2571-581X, Vol. 6, article id 834022Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Antimicrobial resistance occurs when microorganisms survive exposure and proliferate in the presence of therapeutic levels of antimicrobial drugs. Because antimicrobial resistance is increasing, it is vital to encourage consumers to change and adopt smarter antibiotic behaviour. Despite World Health Organization's efforts to combat antibiotic resistance and their emphasis on the importance of public involvement, the role of consumers has been overlooked. The manifold responsibility for antibiotic resistance extends across different actors, including food retailers and consumers. Given this shared responsibility, a blame game arises and no action occurs. To overcome this status quo situation, we draw attention to the potential role of individual responsibility and social pressure to encourage consumers to adopt smart antibiotic behaviour but also to empower them. Conditions must be put in place to enable consumers' critical evaluation of the health-related and ethical aspects of their food choices. Such behaviour can be facilitated using digital innovations to support informed choices, in store and online.

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  • 18.
    Andersson, Lars Fredrik
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research (CEDAR). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Unit of Economic History.
    Eriksson, Rikard
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Scocco, Sandro
    Arenagruppen, Arenaide, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Refugee immigration and the growth of low-wage work in the EU152019In: Comparative Migration Studies, ISSN 2214-8590, E-ISSN 2214-594X, Vol. 7, no 39, p. 1-19Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Our paper focuses on current trends in refugee migration and job polarization. In so doing, we assess the role of refugee migration in relation to institutional, technological and globalization factors in an effort to trace the factors underlying the growth of low-paying occupations in EU 15 between 1995 and 2017. Our empirical findings suggest that refugee migration has a small but positive and statistically significant impact on the growth of low-wage occupations in the EU 15 as a whole. However, the effect is attributed to Southern Europe and the UK and Irish economies. Despite hosting relatively large numbers of refugee migrants, the effects in the Nordic countries and Continental Europe are negligible, if present, and non-existent in the long run (5 years). When including all migrant workers, we find a limited impact on the growth of low-wage work in general, while the impact of immigrant workers from low-income third party countries becomes positive for the UK and Irish economy, but less for other European macro-regions. This suggests that institutional settings can play an important role in how the economy adjusts to migration. It also suggests that traditional fiscal cost calculations in relation to migration are often overestimated, as they implicitly build on the assumption that refugees and general immigration have great impacts on the growth of low-wage occupations.

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  • 19.
    Andersson, Linda
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Lundberg, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Sjöström, Magnus
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Regional Effects of Military Base Closures: The case of Sweden2007In: Defence and Peace Economics, ISSN 1024-2694, E-ISSN 1476-8267, Vol. 18, no 1, p. 87-97Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to investigate regional effects of military base closures in Sweden during the last decades. Our analysis is based on a regional growth model, where two equations are estimated; one equation describing the average income growth rate and one equation describing the net migration rate. The data set is a panel of 31 Swedish municipalities covering the period 1983-1998. Our main finding is that a closure of a military base has not had any significant impact on the subsequent average income growth rate nor the net migration rate in the affected municipalities. One potential explanation for these results relates to the labour market and the composition of the labour force.

  • 20.
    Andersson, Linda
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Lundberg, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Sjöström, Magnus
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Regional Effects of Military Closures: The case of Sweden2005Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [en]

    This paper concerns the effects of military closures on the local growth pattern in Sweden during the last decades. The main issue is to analyze to what extent the closures have affected the subsequent average income growth and net migration rates at the local level. The analysis is based on a data set covering Swedish municipalities with military bases during the period 1983-1998. Our main finding is that the closures have not had any significant impact on the subsequent income growth rate or the net migration rate in the affected minicipalities compared to other municipilaties. However, in accordance with previous studies based on Swedish data, we find the initial endowment of human capital to have a positive impact on the subsequent growth rate.

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  • 21.
    Anderstig, Christer
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Applied Methods for Analysis of Economic Structure and Change1988Doctoral thesis, monograph (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The thesis comprises five papers and an introductory overview of applied models and methods. The papers concern interdependences and interrelations in models applied to empirical analyses of various problems related to production, consumption, location and trade. Among different definitions of 'structural analysis' one refers to the study of the properties of economic models on the assumption of invariant structural relations, this definition is close to what is aimed at in lire present case.

    Although the subjects cover widely differing aspects of the economic system, applied models and methods, i.e. entropy maximizing (information minimizing) models and random utility maximizing models, are in many cases closely connected.

    Tlic first paper reports on a regional input-ouput study applied to Norrbotten, Sweden. The paper is mainly concentrated on developing and estimating an econometric model, describing the structural interdependences in the Norrbotten economy. The chapter is composed of three parts. The first part concerns the theoretical basis of the model, the main fields of application and principal problems in connection with the estimation. The core of the estimated model is defined by the intersectoral dependences in the Norrbotten economy. This model can be viewed as a part of a more general model of the regional economy, and such a general model is briefly outlined.

    The second part reports on the collection and arranging of data, and the methods used for the estimation of the model. In the third part the results are presented. A special interest concerns the effects of production changes in the basic industries in the county, as to the expected impact on different industries and occupational groups.

    The second paper concerns some aspects of the problem of predicting trade flows in the forest sector. The model, based on information theory, is predicting current trade flows by adjusting the historical, a priori, trade flows to satisfy current export and import totals.

    In the third paper an entropy model is employed to decompose the interregional and intraregional employment change in Sweden and Stockholm, during the period 1960 - 1980, into effects attributed to regions (zones), industries, occupations and interaction effects.

    The fourth paper presents an empirical analysis of housing choice, based on individual data of households in Stockholm. The consumer choice is regarded as a complex choice from a finite set of discrete alternatives and a probabilistic choice mode! (multinomial logit) is employed, where secondary dwelling is included in the housing choice decision.

    In the final paper spectral analysis is used for identifying the significant components of cycle behaviour in time series of Swedish exports of forest products over a twenty year time period.

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  • 22. Anderstig, Christer
    et al.
    Snickars, Folke
    Westin, Jonas
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM). Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics.
    Westlund, Hans
    Multiregional input-output tables for Swedish regions: trade modelling comparisons2023Report (Other academic)
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  • 23.
    Anderstig, Christer
    et al.
    WSP.
    Snickars, Folke
    KTH.
    Westin, Jonas
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Westlund, Hans
    JIBS/KTH.
    Multiregionala inputoutputanalyser – idag och imorgon2022Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Denna rapport om validering, kvalitetssäkring och demonstration av SCB:s MRIO-tabeller har skrivits inom ramen för ett svenskt utvecklingsarbete med att utnyttja interregionala IO-tabeller för forskning, policy och planering. Det arbete som rapporten behandlar utgör en högre ambition för att skapa kunskapsunderlag om hur de regionala ekonomierna i Sverige och internationellt hänger samman genom handel med varor och tjänster.

    Frågor om vilka policyinsatser som kan göras för att utveckla svensk konkurrenskraft och främja svenskt klimatarbete i en alltmera specialiserad och internationaliserad ekonomi utgör kärnan i rapportens frågeställningar. Det har länge ansetts som näst intill omöjligt att behandla dessa frågeställningar med metodik som bygger på interregional inputoutputanalys. Denna rapport visar att en sådan ambitionshöjning är både motiverad och möjlig särskilt i Sverige med sin välutvecklade ekonomiska statistik och acceptans föranvändning av evidensbaserade utvärderingsmetoder.

    Rapportens huvudresultat är att det finns anledning att fortsätta och ytterligare fördjupa SCB:s påbörjade utvecklingsarbete med interregionala input-outputtabeller. För att detta arbete ska bli framgångsrikt krävs att man tillför ytterligare resurser för statistikinsamling, framtagning av kvalitetssäkrade statistikprodukter och demonstration av metodikensanvändningsområden och styrkor i förhållande till befintlig praktik.

    Ett grundläggande problem som identifierats i SCB:s pågående MRIO-projekt, och som behandlas i forskningsrapporten, är att den regionala nivån betraktas som underordnad den nationella vid statistikinsamling och uppbyggnad av räkenskapssystemen.

    De nationella räkenskaperna byggs upp från mikrodata utan att tillvarata den geografiska information som återfinns i mikrodata. Därefter tas de regionala räkenskaperna fram via nedbrytnings- och fördelningsmetoder av olika slag.

    I rapporten visas att detta kan leda till konsistensproblem för både produktionssystemet och den slutliga förbrukningen. Rapporten tar privat konsumtion som exempel men även behandlingen av handelsmarginaler och transportmarginaler ges som exempel. Det visas hur man i Kanada sedan länge har byggt samman den regionala nivån och den nationella inte minst när det gäller interprovinsiell och internationell handel.

    I rapporten pekas på ytterligare samverkansvinster som kan göras med pågående arbete inom såväl Tillväxtanalys och Tillväxtverket som Trafikverket och Trafikanalys. Dessa kan bestå i en samordning mellan de olika myndigheternas insamling av primärdata exempelvis avseende handelsflöden. Ett huvudresultat som lyfts fram i rapporten är att dessa aspekter kan åtgärdas i en tredje fas av projektet. Sådana fördjupningar behövs för att gå vidare med utvärderingsmodeller för olika policyområden som exempelvis rörfrågor om konkurrenskraft, sysselsättningsåtgärder och klimatutmaningar. Modeller att bygga vidare på finns redan, exempelvis Raps för regionalekonomiska utvärderingar.

    I rapporten visas vidare att den kommande fasen av SCB:s MRIO-projekt bör innehålla moment som inriktas mot sammanfogning av de svenska regionala och nationella räkenskaperna med det internationella arbetet med konsoliderad input-outputanalys. Multiregionala input-outputanalyser – i dag och i morgon 6/83

    De svenska räkenskaperna har tidigare har varit föremål för justering bland annat inom OECD för att fungera för analys av globala värdekedjor och klimatpolitiska åtgärder. Nu har en anpassning skett och det ligger inom räckhåll att göra Sverige till förebild när det gäller att samlat utvärdera politik på internationell och interregional nivå.

    Rapporten är skriven i nära anslutning till SCB:s MRIO-projekt. Detta torde garantera att resultaten av föreliggande projekt kan nyttiggöras i fas tre av SCB-projektet på ett smidigt sätt.

    Fas två av detta projekt är ännu inte avslutad även om huvuddelen av utvecklingsarbetet är klart inte minst när det gäller programmering i R av en helt ny produkt för insamling och analys av regional statistik. Kvalitetssäkring pågår av projektets olika delar med ambition att denna kvalitetssäkring även ska göras av internationella experter. Det finns därför goda förutsättningar att nästa fas av utvecklingsprojektet kan innebära ett stort steg framåt när det gäller en ny generation av statistikprodukter inom SCB och ett fördjupatunderlag för framtida policyanalyser.

  • 24.
    Andreev, Oleg A.
    et al.
    Barents Centre for Social Research, Murmansk, Russia.
    Olsson, Mats-Olov
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    New Environmentalism in the Russian Northwest1994In: The Changing Circumpolar North: Opportunities for Academic Development, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland , 1994, p. 135–147-Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 25.
    Andreev, Oleg A.
    et al.
    Barents Centre for Social Research, Murmansk, Russia.
    Olsson, Mats-Olov
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Self-Government for the County of Murmansk: Background and Recent Developments1994In: The Barents Region: Security and Economic Development in the European North, CERUM, Umeå University, Umeå , 1994, p. 197-219Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 26. Andreev, Oleg
    et al.
    Olsson, Mats-Olov
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Overview of Environmental Problems in North-West Russia2003In: The Challenges of Industrial Ecology in the Barents Region, Otamedia Oy, Espoo , 2003Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 27.
    Andreyev, Oleg A.
    et al.
    Barents Center for Social Research, Murmansk, Russia.
    Olsson, Mats-Olov
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Vinogradov, Andrey I.
    Barents Center for Social Research, Murmansk, Russia.
    Privatization of municipal property in Murmansk1995In: Polar Geography, ISSN 1088-937X, E-ISSN 1939-0513, Vol. 19, no 2, p. 88-106Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents the results of a pilot study of privatization of municipal property in the Russian North based on data from the Murmansk city government. After a general overview of the process in Russia and Murmansk city, the paper outlines a number of positive and negative aspects of the privatization of city-owned enterprises on the basis of interviews conducted with the management of the newly privatized enterprises.

  • 28. Arnek, Magnus
    et al.
    Hultkrantz, Lars
    Persson, Lars-Olof
    Westin, Lars
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Österberg, Richard
    Upphandling av drift och vägunderhåll i norra Sveriges inland: om marknadsförutsättningar och regionala effekter1999Book (Other academic)
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  • 29.
    Aronsson, Thomas
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Lundberg, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Wikström, Magnus
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Regional income growth and net migration in Sweden, 1970-19952001In: Regional studies, ISSN 0034-3404, E-ISSN 1360-0591, Vol. 35, no 9, p. 823-830Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper concerns the regional growth pattern in Sweden, and the purpose is to analyse what factors determine the growth rate of average income and the net migration at the regional level. We find a negative relationship between the initial level of regional average income and subsequent income growth. The results also imply that the initial endowment of human capital (measured as the percentage of the population with higher education) has a positive effect on the subsequent net migration. Other determinants of regional income growth and population movements are 'fixed endowments' (related to geography and climate) and regional labour market characteristics.

  • 30.
    Aronsson, Thomas
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Lundberg, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Wikström, Magnus
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    The Impact of regional public expenditures on the local decision to spend2000In: Regional Science and Urban Economics, ISSN 0166-0462, E-ISSN 1879-2308, Vol. 30, no 2, p. 185-202Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies the hypothesis that local (municipal) expenditures in part can be explained by the expenditures of the regional (county) government. To accomplish this task, we derive and estimate a model of local public (municipal) spending that is defined conditional on the level of regional public expenditures. The empirical analysis is based on panel data from the Swedish local public sector for the time period 1981–1986. Among the results, we find that the hypothesis that regional expenditures are weakly separable from local expenditures can be rejected. However, we cannot reject the hypothesis that the regional expenditures are weakly exogenous in the local expenditure equation.

  • 31. Asplund, Disa
    et al.
    Westin, Jonas
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Modellering av slingor inom sjötransporter2017Report (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish national freight transport model system Samgods is a freight model that simulates logistics decision at a disaggregated firm-to-firm level. The model calculates total annual transport demand in Sweden for all transport modes based on a deterministic cost minimization approach. The model cannot consolidate commodities of different commodity types in the same vessel, train or truck and can only simulate vessels using direct routes between two ports. This implies that many of the features of sea transport such as utilizing larger vessels and building loops to consolidate goods from different ports is not possible in the current Samgods version. In this paper, we analyze the effect of removing restrictions in sea transportation especially by allowing the ship operators to construct and utilize loops. In the new model, LIFREM (Loops Including FREight Model), the shippers’ choice of sea transport routes is modelled as a mixed integer linear programming optimization problem. In doing so, we make use of a case study on sea transport of forest products from Northern Sweden to Western Europe. The results show that allowing predefined loops decreases total logistic cost by 10% and allowing the shipper to freely select loops decreases the cost by 21%. These results show that modelling of loops is important in order to realistically represent the attractiveness of the sea transport mode. This is also confirmed by the fact that the sea mode share increases by 2–4% in LIFREM when loops are allowed.

  • 32.
    Asplund, Maria
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Elektronik- och dataingenjörsutbildningen i Pajala, studentperspektivet2000Report (Other academic)
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  • 33.
    Asplund, Maria
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Ex Ante utvärdering av E12 Alliansen: En analys av förarbeten, beslutsdokument och målsättningar2001Report (Other academic)
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  • 34.
    Asplund, Maria
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Om måluppfyllelsen för Umeå universitets elektronik- och dataingenjörsutbildning i Pajala2001Report (Other academic)
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  • 35.
    Asplund, Maria
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Nordström, Anna
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Utvärdering av SAMS-projektet2001Report (Other academic)
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  • 36.
    Asplund, Patrik
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Bergkvist, Erik
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Westin, Lars
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    En samhällsekonomisk analys av färjetrafik på Kvarken1998Report (Other academic)
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    Westin, Bergkvist, Asplund 1998 En samhällsekonomisk analys av förjetrafiken på Kvarken
  • 37.
    Asplund, Patrik
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Nordman, Niklas
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Attitudes toward the Third Mission: A Selection of Interviews from Seven Universities in Sweden1999Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The third mission is closely connected with issues of economic growth and a subject of importance on the political agenda. The purpose of this study is to shed light on customary attitudes among people involved in higher education concerning this major change within the university organisation. An investigation based on approximately eighty interview sessions with researchers and personnel in leading positions in four different departments, conducted at seven universities in Sweden, is presented. The analysis is built on the answers received from a standard questionnaire and contains information on ideological, practical and organisational matters. The results indicate that most people in the departments of concern respond in a positive way to the changes of the organisation. However, there are no significant differences between departments or universities in general.

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  • 38.
    Axensten, Peder
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Modelling and Visualizing Short Term Impact of a Nuclear Accident on Transportation Flows2001Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents an integrated system to calculate and visualize optimal evacuation routes in case of a serious release of radioactivity, minimizing the exposure to radiation. The system calculates and visualizes the optimal flow as to vacate any set of nodes while minimizing a specified cost. A mathematical model of the problemis formulated and then adapted in such a way that it can be used to solve the problemwith an offtheshelf geographic information system (GIS). Specifically, the Barents Region is studied and a hypothetical release from the Kola Nuclear Power Plant is used as a case study.

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  • 39.
    Axensten, Peder
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Modelling the short-term impact of a nuclear accident on transportation flows2007In: Policy analysis of transport networks / [ed] Aura Reggiani; Marina van Geenhuizen; Piet Rietveld, Aldershot: Ashgate, 2007, 1, p. 61-75Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This chapter discusses the accessibility impacts of the Trans-European Railway Network (TEN-T) for three different periods of time: the years 1995, 2005 and 2015. It presents a literature review of accessibility and discusses the intrinsic nature of distinct partial accessibility indicators. The chapter introduces Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) proposal to synthesize the partial accessibility information in a sensible way, and presents the results of this new global approach. For instance, Paris is the city which provides better accessibility results with respect the location and potential market indicators in the three scenarios analysed, but it is below the fourth place regarding daily accessibility. The TEN-T is one of the basic policy instruments applied in the EU to achieve growth, competitiveness and employment. European transport policy has always called for an integrated approach combining inter alia measures to revitalize rail sector, and special emphasis has been dedicated to the development of High Speed Train (HST) corridors, in particular the cross-border corridors.

  • 40. Bager-Sjögren, Lars
    et al.
    Calidoni, Federica
    Gadd, Håkan
    Shahiduzzaman Quoreshi, A.M.M.
    Lundberg, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Evaluation of the Effects of Government Subsidies to Swedish Industry2007Report (Other academic)
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  • 41.
    Batten, David
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Product cycles and substitution in international markets for building materials1989In: Habitat International, ISSN 0197-3975, E-ISSN 1873-5428, Vol. 13, no 3, p. 101-110Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 42.
    Batten, David F.
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Johansson, Börje
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Westin, Lars
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    En ny databas för analys av byggnadsindustrin1988In: Byggvarunytt, ISSN 0280-1019, no 4, p. 34-35Article, book review (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 43.
    Batten, David F.
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Westin, Lars
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Modelling commodity flows on trade networks: retrospect and prospect1988Report (Other academic)
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  • 44.
    Batten, David
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Westin, Lars
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Modelling Commodity Flows on Trade Networks: Retrospect and Prospect1989Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Various approaches to the estimation of commodity flow or trade share matrices across world trade networks are examined. Some serious drawbacks associated with the use of spatial price equilibrium models are identified, and a case is made for combining two or more individual approaches, such as may be found in "dispersed" spatial price equilibrium models or in computable general equilibrium models which cater for spatial heterogeneity. It is found that some variant of the gravity model may be a reliable guide to trade share patterns in the long run, particularly in a world of differentiated products and increasing returns to scale. A conclusive finding is that quite different models ought to be adopted for different commodities (i.e. markets) in the short and medium term perspective.

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  • 45.
    Bergdahl, Eva
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Magnus, Rönn
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Planering för funktionintegrering - problem och utgångspunkter2001Report (Other academic)
  • 46.
    Bergkvist, Erik
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Westin, Lars
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Estimation of gravity models by OLS estimation, NLS estimation, Poisson, and Neural Network specifications1997Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Four specifications of gravity models for freight flow prediction are compared. The traditional specification with OLS estimation is compared with non-linear least squares (NLS) estimation as well as with a model where data are assumed to be Poisson distributed. These are compared with a semi-parametric neural network model. Data consists of freight flows between Norwegian counties. The attribute describing a node is population while distance gives the friction on links of transportation. Results show that estimation with OLS and NLS is inferior to Poisson and Neural Network specifications. However, the Poisson model, although advantageous compared to OLS, may still be improved upon. The semiparametric Neural Network does require less of these restrictions to hold and also outperforms the others as a tool for forecast in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The NLS model although showed the best performance when estimated on known data.

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  • 47.
    Bergkvist, Erik
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Westin, Lars
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Estimation of gravity models by OLS estimation, NLS estimation, Poisson and neural network specifications2001In: New analytical advances in transportation and spatial dynamics / [ed] Massimo Gastaldi; Aura Reggiani, Aldershot: Ashgate, 2001, p. 135-155Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    When assessing infrastructure investment, it is crucial to forecast the flows on the links after the suggested improvements. In freight flow analysis, the impact on the flows in the network is conditional on the size of the investment and the complexity of the network. If the investment has a critical impact on the flows, the change may be substantial and hard to predict by linear models. In economic geography and regional economics, the gravity model has gained wide acceptance as a reasonable (although simple) model of spatial interaction between nodes in a network (Haynes and Fotheringham, 1984 or Sen and Smith, 1995).

  • 48.
    Bergkvist, Erik
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Westin, Lars
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Forecasting interregional freight flows by gravity models: Utilising OLS-, NLS- estimations and Poisson-, Neural Network- specifications1998In: 38th Congress of the European Regional Science Association, ERSA , 1998, , p. 23Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper we compare four different specifications of gravity models for inter regional freight flow prediction. The most used specification with OLS estimation is compared with a model where errors are assumed to be Poisson distributed and a model similar to this but with errors assumed to be normally distributed, namely Non-linear Least Square (NLS). We also compare these with a Feed Forward Back Propagation Neural Network. (NN) Data consists of freight flows between Norwegian counties. The attribute describing the nodes is population and distance in kilometres is used as a proxy for costs on transport links. Since we here only are interested in inter regional flows intra regional flows are excluded. Results are also compared with an earlier study by Bergkvist and Westin (1997) were also intraregional data were used. Performance measures used here shows that OLS compared to Poisson, NLS and Neural Network specifications will produce worse predictions. However, the question on how to compare performance is not indisputable and of great importance since different measures can produce quite different results, not just in scale but also in ranking. When non-linear models are used the lack of a simple easily interpretable Rsquare measure as in linear regression is evident. We therefore use different measures of performance and discuss their pros and cons.

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  • 49.
    Bergkvist, Erik
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Westin, Lars
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Regional valuation of infrastructure and transport attributes for Swedish road freight2001In: The annals of regional science, ISSN 0570-1864, E-ISSN 1432-0592, Vol. 35, no 4, p. 547-560Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Is it possible to identify regional differences among shippers in their valuation of infrastructure improvements? In this study, the question is analysed using a random utility approach, where parameters are estimated by a logit model. Data consist of a Swedish stated-preference study from 1992. The results indicate that regional differences exist, but that a considerable heterogeneity in the empirical data means that in some cases the results are not robust. However, when industrial mix, shipping distance, and goods values are held constant, the analysis still indicates the existence of regional differences. Independently of the limitations in the results, the study has implications for any infrastructure benefit analysis where parameters from spatial averages are used. The results are based on short-term decisions, and one should recognise that parameters may vary in the mid- and long-term.

  • 50.
    Bergkvist, Erik
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Westin, Lars
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Värderas godstransporter rätt vid järnvägsinvesteringar?: En granskning av Banverkets investeringsmodell1994Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    I rapporten diskuteras Banverkets samhällsekonomiska kalkylmodell för järnvägsinvesteringar mot bakgrund av debatten om transporter, näringslivets utveckling och sysselsättningseffekter som under senare år förts i Sverige och internationellt. Den centrala frågeställningen är i vilken grad dessa faktorer beaktas i den samhällsekonomiska kalkylen?

    Banverkets nuvarande investeringsmodell ger inte möjligheter att beräkna de sysselsättningseffekter en investering ger upphov till. Trots det ger kalkylmodellen en möjlighet att approximativt uppskatta samhällets nytta, inklusive värdet av ny sysselsättning, av en investering. Vid större projekt, v projekt avseende "felande" länkar och projekt som initierar betydande trafiköverflyttning riskerar modellens objektsanalys att ge osäkra resultat. I dessa fall krävs nätverksanalys. En nätverksansats ger möjlighet att härleda sysselsättningsförändringar som en endogen del av modellarbetet. Dessutom kan dagens oklara flödesprognoser göras tydligare.

    Nätverksanalysen ska ses som ett komplement till objektsanalysen. Parallellt med att en sådan analysmodell tas fram bör Banverkets objektsanalys utvecklas vidare. Vi har funnit ett antal punkter där detta kan ske.

    • Pris- och korspriselasticiteter bör införas för att undvika inkonsistens i flödesprognosen.

    • Monopolantagande för hela järnvägsmarknaden är alltför långtgående. Inom flera segment råder konkurrens med andra transportslag.

    • Godstrafikens kalkylvärden är idag lägre än persontrafikens värden. De förändringar som skett inom järnvägssektorn de senaste åren ger skäl att noga följa värderingsförändringar. Nivåfel mellan gods- och passagerarvärden kan bl.a. därför inte uteslutas.

    • Tidigare studier indikerar att regionala värderingsskillnader förekommer. Här krävs mer ingående analyser.

    • Transportflödenas internationalisering och intresset för fördelningseffekter innebär att samhällsekonomisk analys för öppna ekonomier bör introduceras i modellen.

    I rapporten har kalkylen för Botniabanan använts som referens. Vår genomgång indikerar att utredningens resultat är robusta givet att den nuvarande modellramen accepteras. Däremot är det osäkert om det samhällsekonomiska resultatet består vid en utvidgad analys enligt våra förslag. Men eftersom förslagen ger effekter som både är positiva och negativa för kalkylen är nettoutfallet oklart.

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    Värderas godstransporter rätt vid järnvägsinvesteringar?: En granskning av Banverkets investeringsmodell
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