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  • 1.
    Arisco, Nicholas J
    et al.
    Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, MA, Boston, United States.
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Bärnighausen, Till
    Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard University, MA, Cambridge, United States; Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany; Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), KwaZulu-Natal, Somkhele, South Africa; Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
    Sié, Ali
    Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna, Institut National de Santé Publique, Nouna, Burkina Faso.
    Zabre, Pascal
    Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna, Institut National de Santé Publique, Nouna, Burkina Faso.
    Bunker, Aditi
    Center for Climate, Health and the Global Environment, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, MA, Boston, United States; Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.
    The effect of extreme temperature and precipitation on cause-specific deaths in rural Burkina Faso: a longitudinal study2023Ingår i: The Lancet Planetary Health, E-ISSN 2542-5196, Vol. 7, nr 6, s. e478-e489Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: Extreme weather is becoming more common due to climate change and threatens human health through climate-sensitive diseases, with very uneven effects around the globe. Low-income, rural populations in the Sahel region of west Africa are projected to be severely affected by climate change. Climate-sensitive disease burdens have been linked to weather conditions in areas of the Sahel, although comprehensive, disease-specific empirical evidence on these relationships is scarce. In this study, we aim to provide an analysis of the associations between weather conditions and cause-specific deaths over a 16-year period in Nouna, Burkina Faso.

    Methods: In this longitudinal study, we used de-identified, daily cause-of-death data from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System led by the Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna (CRSN) in the National Institute of Public Health of Burkina Faso, to assess temporal associations between daily and weekly weather conditions (maximum temperature and total precipitation) and deaths attributed to specific climate-sensitive diseases. We implemented distributed-lag zero-inflated Poisson models for 13 disease-age groups at daily and weekly time lags. We included all deaths from climate-sensitive diseases in the CRSN demographic surveillance area from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2015 in the analysis. We report the exposure–response relationships at percentiles representative of the exposure distributions of temperature and precipitation in the study area.

    Findings: Of 8256 total deaths in the CRSN demographic surveillance area over the observation period, 6185 (74·9%) were caused by climate-sensitive diseases. Deaths from communicable diseases were most common. Heightened risk of death from all climate-sensitive communicable diseases, and malaria (both across all ages and in children younger than 5 years), was associated with 14-day lagged daily maximum temperatures at or above 41·1°C, the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperatures, compared with 36·4°C, the median (all communicable diseases: 41·9°C relative risk [RR] 1·38 [95% CI 1·08–1·77], 42·8°C 1·57 [1·13–2·18]; malaria all ages: 41·1°C 1·47 [1·05–2·05], 41·9°C 1·78 [1·21–2·61], 42·8°C 2·35 [1·37–4·03]; malaria younger than 5 years: 41·9°C 1·67 [1·02–2·73]). Heightened risk of death from communicable diseases was also associated with 14-day lagged total daily precipitation at or below 0·1 cm, the 49th percentile of total daily precipitation, compared with 1·4 cm, the median (all communicable diseases: 0·0 cm 1·04 [1·02–1·07], 0·1 cm 1·01 [1·006–1·02]; malaria all ages: 0·0 cm 1·04 [1·01–1·08], 0·1 cm 1·02 [1·00–1·03]; malaria younger than 5 years: 0·0 cm 1·05 [1·01–1·10], 0·1 cm 1·02 [1·00–1·04]). The only significant association with a non-communicable disease outcome was a heightened risk of death from climate-sensitive cardiovascular diseases in individuals aged 65 years and older associated with 7-day lagged daily maximum temperatures at or above 41·9°C (41·9°C 2·25 [1·06–4·81], 42·8°C 3·68 [1·46–9·25]). Over 8 cumulative weeks, we found that the risk of death from communicable diseases was heightened at all ages from temperatures at or above 41·1°C (41·1°C 1·23 [1·05–1·43], 41·9°C 1·30 [1·08–1·56], 42·8°C 1·35 [1·09–1·66]) and risk of death from malaria was heightened by precipitation at or above 45·3 cm (all ages: 45·3 cm 1·68 [1·31–2·14], 61·6 cm 1·72 [1·27–2·31], 87·7 cm 1·72 [1·16–2·55]; children younger than 5 years: 45·3 cm 1·81 [1·36–2·41], 61·6 cm 1·82 [1·29–2·56], 87·7 cm 1·93 [1·24–3·00]).

    Interpretation: Our results indicate a high burden of death related to extreme weather in the Sahel region of west Africa. This burden is likely to increase with climate change. Climate preparedness programmes—such as extreme weather alerts, passive cooling architecture, and rainwater drainage—should be tested and implemented to prevent deaths from climate-sensitive diseases in vulnerable communities in Burkina Faso and the wider Sahel region. 

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  • 2.
    Armando, Chaibo Jose
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Rocklöv, Joacim
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa. Heidelberg Institute of Global Health and Interdisciplinary Centre for Scientific Computing, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.
    Sidat, Mohsin
    Faculty of Medicine, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique.
    Tozan, Yesim
    School of Global Public Health, New York University, NY, New York, United States.
    Mavume, Alberto Francisco
    Faculty of Science, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique.
    Bunker, Aditi
    Center for Climate, Health, and the Global Environment, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, MA, Boston, United States; Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa. Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.
    Climate variability, socio-economic conditions and vulnerability to malaria infections in Mozambique 2016–2018: a spatial temporal analysis2023Ingår i: Frontiers In Public Health, ISSN 2296-2565, Vol. 11, artikel-id 1162535Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: Temperature, precipitation, relative humidity (RH), and Normalized Different Vegetation Index (NDVI), influence malaria transmission dynamics. However, an understanding of interactions between socioeconomic indicators, environmental factors and malaria incidence can help design interventions to alleviate the high burden of malaria infections on vulnerable populations. Our study thus aimed to investigate the socioeconomic and climatological factors influencing spatial and temporal variability of malaria infections in Mozambique.

    Methods: We used monthly malaria cases from 2016 to 2018 at the district level. We developed an hierarchical spatial–temporal model in a Bayesian framework. Monthly malaria cases were assumed to follow a negative binomial distribution. We used integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) in R for Bayesian inference and distributed lag nonlinear modeling (DLNM) framework to explore exposure-response relationships between climate variables and risk of malaria infection in Mozambique, while adjusting for socioeconomic factors.

    Results: A total of 19,948,295 malaria cases were reported between 2016 and 2018 in Mozambique. Malaria risk increased with higher monthly mean temperatures between 20 and 29°C, at mean temperature of 25°C, the risk of malaria was 3.45 times higher (RR 3.45 [95%CI: 2.37–5.03]). Malaria risk was greatest for NDVI above 0.22. The risk of malaria was 1.34 times higher (1.34 [1.01–1.79]) at monthly RH of 55%. Malaria risk reduced by 26.1%, for total monthly precipitation of 480 mm (0.739 [95%CI: 0.61–0.90]) at lag 2 months, while for lower total monthly precipitation of 10 mm, the risk of malaria was 1.87 times higher (1.87 [1.30–2.69]). After adjusting for climate variables, having lower level of education significantly increased malaria risk (1.034 [1.014–1.054]) and having electricity (0.979 [0.967–0.992]) and sharing toilet facilities (0.957 [0.924–0.991]) significantly reduced malaria risk.

    Conclusion: Our current study identified lag patterns and association between climate variables and malaria incidence in Mozambique. Extremes in climate variables were associated with an increased risk of malaria transmission, peaks in transmission were varied. Our findings provide insights for designing early warning, prevention, and control strategies to minimize seasonal malaria surges and associated infections in Mozambique a region where Malaria causes substantial burden from illness and deaths.

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  • 3.
    Birabwa, Catherine
    et al.
    Department of Health Policy, Planning and Management, Makerere University School of Public Health, New Mulago Hospital Complex, Kampala, Uganda.
    Chemonges, Dennis
    Department of Programs, Population Services International Uganda, Kampala, Uganda; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Makerere University School of Public Health, New Mulago Hospital Complex, Kampala, Uganda.
    Tetui, Moses
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa. Department of Health Policy, Planning and Management, Makerere University School of Public Health, New Mulago Hospital Complex, Kampala, Uganda; School of Pharmacy, Waterloo University, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
    Baroudi, Mazen
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Namatovu, Fredinah
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Akuze, Joseph
    Department of Health Policy, Planning and Management, Makerere University School of Public Health, New Mulago Hospital Complex, Kampala, Uganda; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
    Makumbi, Fredrick
    Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Makerere University School of Public Health, New Mulago Hospital Complex, Kampala, Uganda.
    Ssekamatte, Tonny
    Department of Disease Control and Environmental Health, Makerere University School of Public Health, New Mulago Hospital Complex, Kampala, Uganda.
    Atuyambe, Lynn
    Department of Community Health and Behavioural Sciences, Makerere University School of Public Health, New Mulago Hospital Complex, Kampala, Uganda.
    Hernandez, Alison
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Knowledge and information exposure about family planning among women of reproductive age in informal settlements of Kira municipality, Wakiso district, Uganda2021Ingår i: Epidemiologic Methods, ISSN 2194-9263, E-ISSN 2161-962X, Vol. 2, artikel-id 650538Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Introduction: A high unmet need for family planning (FP) prevails in sub-Saharan Africa. Knowledge, awareness creation, and ensuring accessibility are frequently used to increase FP uptake. However, evidence on knowledge or information dissemination about FP among marginalized populations in urban settings in Africa is limited. This study explored the knowledge of FP methods, media exposure, and contact with FP providers among women from an informal settlement in Uganda.

    Methods: Using a cross-sectional study design, we interviewed 626 women aged 15–49 years living in informal settlements of Kira municipality, selected through multistage sampling. Using a standard questionnaire, data was collected on socioeconomic characteristics, knowledge of FP methods, and access to media FP messages among others. Binomial log-linear regression was used to assess disparities in exposure to media FP messages or provider information. Data were analyzed using STATA version 14, at a 5% level of statistical significance.

    Results: Nearly all women in the survey were aware of FP methods (99.7%). On average, each woman was aware of 10 FP methods. The most commonly known methods were male condoms (98.2%), injectables (97.4%), and the oral contraceptive pill (95.2%). Use of any contraceptive was found among 42.7% of respondents. Exposure to media was found in 70.6% of the respondents, mostly through television (58.5%) and radio (58.3%). Discussing FP with a provider was significantly associated with media exposure (aPR 1.4, 95% CI: 1.24–1.56). Less than 50% of women who were not using FP had contact with an FP provider. Women in union (aPR 1.6, 95% CI: 1.01–2.68) and those with access to media messages (aPR 2.5, 95% CI: 1.37–4.54) were more likely to have contact with a provider to discuss FP.

    Conclusion: There is high general awareness about FP methods and media exposure, but method use was low. Further exploration of women's understanding of FP methods and the fit between existing education programs and FP knowledge needs in this urban setting should be conducted. The potential for mobile health solutions in this urban population should be explored. Future studies should focus on the knowledge and understanding of FP among unmarried and nulliparous women and those with no access to media information.

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  • 4. Bunker, Aditi
    et al.
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Sié, Ali
    Rocklöv, Joacim
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Sauerborn, Rainer
    Excess burden of non-communicable disease years of life lost from heat in rural Burkina Faso: a time series analysis of the years 2000-20102017Ingår i: BMJ Open, E-ISSN 2044-6055, Vol. 7, nr 11, artikel-id e018068Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Objectives: Investigate the association of heat exposure on years of life lost (YLL) from non-communicable diseases (NCD) in Nouna, Burkina Faso, between 2000 and 2010.

    Design: Daily time series regression analysis using distributed lag non-linear models, assuming a quasi-Poisson distribution of YLL.

    Setting: Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Kossi Province, Rural Burkina Faso.

    Participants: 18 367 NCD-YLL corresponding to 790 NCD deaths recorded in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance Site register over 11 years.

    Main outcome measure: Excess mean daily NCD-YLL were generated from the relative risk of maximum daily temperature on NCD-YLL, including effects delayed up to 14 days.

    Results: Daily average NCD-YLL were 4.6, 2.4 and 2.1 person-years for all ages, men and women, respectively. Moderate 4-day cumulative rise in maximum temperature from 36.4 degrees C (50th percentile) to 41.4 degrees C (90th percentile) resulted in 4.44 (95% CI 0.24 to 12.28) excess daily NCDYLL for all ages, rising to 7.39 (95% CI 0.32 to 24.62) at extreme temperature (42.8 degrees C; 99th percentile). The strongest health effects manifested on the day of heat exposure (lag 0), where 0.81 (95% CI 0.13 to 1.59) excess mean NCD-YLL occurred daily at 41.7 degrees C compared with 36.4 degrees C, diminishing in statistical significance after 4 days. At lag 0, daily excess mean NCD-YLL were higher for men, 0.58 (95% CI 0.11 to 1.15) compared with women, 0.15 (95% CI -0.25 to 9.63) at 41.7 degrees C vs 36.4 degrees C.

    Conclusion: Premature death from NCD was elevated significantly with moderate and extreme heat exposure. These findings have important implications for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce ambient heat exposure and preventive measures for limiting NCD in Africa.

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  • 5. Colon-Gonzalez, J. Felipe
    et al.
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Tompkins, M. Adrian
    Sjödin, Henrik
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Casallas, Alejandro
    Rocklöv, Joacim
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa. Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.
    Caminade, Cyril
    Lowe, Rachel
    Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study2021Ingår i: The Lancet Planetary Health, E-ISSN 2542-5196, Vol. 5, nr 7, s. E404-E414Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: Mosquito-borne diseases are expanding their range, and re-emerging in areas where they had subsided for decades. The extent to which climate change influences the transmission suitability and population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases across different altitudes and population densities has not been investigated. The aim of this study was to quantify the extent to which climate change will influence the length of the transmission season and estimate the population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases in the future, given different population densities across an altitudinal gradient.

    Methods: Using a multi-model multi-scenario framework, we estimated changes in the length of the transmission season and global population at risk of malaria and dengue for different altitudes and population densities for the period 1951-99. We generated projections from six mosquito-borne disease models, driven by four global circulation models, using four representative concentration pathways, and three shared socioeconomic pathways.

    Findings: We show that malaria suitability will increase by 1·6 additional months (mean 0·5, SE 0·03) in tropical highlands in the African region, the Eastern Mediterranean region, and the region of the Americas. Dengue suitability will increase in lowlands in the Western Pacific region and the Eastern Mediterranean region by 4·0 additional months (mean 1·7, SE 0·2). Increases in the climatic suitability of both diseases will be greater in rural areas than in urban areas. The epidemic belt for both diseases will expand towards temperate areas. The population at risk of both diseases might increase by up to 4·7 additional billion people by 2070 relative to 1970-99, particularly in lowlands and urban areas.

    Interpretation: Rising global mean temperature will increase the climatic suitability of both diseases particularly in already endemic areas. The predicted expansion towards higher altitudes and temperate regions suggests that outbreaks can occur in areas where people might be immunologically naive and public health systems unprepared. The population at risk of malaria and dengue will be higher in densely populated urban areas in the WHO African region, South-East Asia region, and the region of the Americas, although we did not account for urban-heat island effects, which can further alter the risk of disease transmission.

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  • 6.
    Corvetto, Julia Feriato
    et al.
    Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Universität Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.
    Federspiel, Andrea
    Private Psychiatric Hospital, Meiringen, Switzerland; Support Center for Advanced Neuroimaging, Institute for Diagnostic and Interventional Neuroradiology Inselspital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa. Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Universität Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.
    Müller, Thomas
    Private Psychiatric Hospital, Meiringen, Switzerland; Translational Research Center, University Hospital of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
    Bunker, Aditi
    Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Universität Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.
    Sauerborn, Rainer
    Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Universität Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.
    Impact of heat on mental health emergency visits: a time series study from all public emergency centres, in Curitiba, Brazil2023Ingår i: BMJ Open, E-ISSN 2044-6055, Vol. 13, nr 12, artikel-id e079049Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Objectives: Quantify the risk of mental health (MH)-related emergency department visits (EDVs) due to heat, in the city of Curitiba, Brazil.

    Design: Daily time series analysis, using quasi-Poisson combined with distributed lag non-linear model on EDV for MH disorders, from 2017 to 2021.

    Setting: All nine emergency centres from the public health system, in Curitiba.

    Participants: 101 452 EDVs for MH disorders and suicide attempts over 5 years, from patients residing inside the territory of Curitiba.

    Main outcome measure: Relative risk of EDV (RR EDV) due to extreme mean temperature (24.5°C, 99th percentile) relative to the median (18.02°C), controlling for long-term trends, air pollution and humidity, and measuring effects delayed up to 10 days.

    Results: Extreme heat was associated with higher single-lag EDV risk of RR EDV 1.03(95% CI 1.01 to 1.05 - single-lag 2), and cumulatively of RR EDV 1.15 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.26 - lag-cumulative 0-6). Strong risk was observed for patients with suicide attempts (RR EDV 1.85, 95% CI 1.08 to 3.16) and neurotic disorders (RR EDV 1.18, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.31). As to demographic subgroups, females (RR EDV 1.20, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.34) and patients aged 18-64 (RR EDV 1.18, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.30) were significantly endangered. Extreme heat resulted in lower risks of EDV for patients with organic disorders (RR EDV 0.60, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.89), personality disorders (RR EDV 0.48, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.91) and MH in general in the elderly ≥65 (RR EDV 0.77, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.98). We found no significant RR EDV among males and patients aged 0-17.

    Conclusion: The risk of MH-related EDV due to heat is elevated for the entire study population, but very differentiated by subgroups. This opens avenue for adaptation policies in healthcare: such as monitoring populations at risk and establishing an early warning systems to prevent exacerbation of MH episodes and to reduce suicide attempts. Further studies are welcome, why the reported risk differences occur and what, if any, role healthcare seeking barriers might play.

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  • 7.
    Farooq, Zia
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Rocklöv, Joacim
    Heidelberg institute of global health and Interdisciplinary center for scientific computing, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 205, Heidelberg, Germany.
    Wallin, Jonas
    Department of statistics, Lund university, Sweden.
    Abiri, Najmeh
    Department of statistics, Lund university, Sweden.
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Sjödin, Henrik
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Semenza, Jan C.
    Heidelberg institute of global health and Interdisciplinary center for scientific computing, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 205, Heidelberg, Germany.
    Artificial intelligence to predict West Nile virus outbreaks with eco-climatic drivers2022Ingår i: The Lancet Regional Health: Europe, E-ISSN 2666-7762, Vol. 17, artikel-id 100370Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: In Europe, the frequency, intensity, and geographic range of West Nile virus (WNV)-outbreaks have increased over the past decade, with a 7.2-fold increase in 2018 compared to 2017, and a markedly expanded geographic area compared to 2010. The reasons for this increase and range expansion remain largely unknown due to the complexity of the transmission pathways and underlying disease drivers. In a first, we use advanced artificial intelligence to disentangle the contribution of eco-climatic drivers to WNV-outbreaks across Europe using decade-long (2010-2019) data at high spatial resolution. Methods: We use a high-performance machine learning classifier, XGBoost (eXtreme gradient boosting) combined with state-of-the-art XAI (eXplainable artificial intelligence) methodology to describe the predictive ability and contribution of different drivers of the emergence and transmission of WNV-outbreaks in Europe, respectively. Findings: Our model, trained on 2010-2017 data achieved an AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) score of 0.97 and 0.93 when tested with 2018 and 2019 data, respectively, showing a high discriminatory power to classify a WNV-endemic area. Overall, positive summer/spring temperatures anomalies, lower water availability index (NDWI), and drier winter conditions were found to be the main determinants of WNV-outbreaks across Europe. The climate trends of the preceding year in combination with eco-climatic predictors of the first half of the year provided a robust predictive ability of the entire transmission season ahead of time. For the extraordinary 2018 outbreak year, relatively higher spring temperatures and the abundance of Culex mosquitoes were the strongest predictors, in addition to past climatic trends. Interpretation: Our AI-based framework can be deployed to trigger rapid and timely alerts for active surveillance and vector control measures in order to intercept an imminent WNV-outbreak in Europe. Funding: The work was partially funded by the Swedish Research Council FORMAS for the project ARBOPREVENT (grant agreement 2018-05973).

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  • 8.
    Farooq, Zia
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Sjödin, Henrik
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Semenza, Jan C.
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa. Heidelberg institute of global health and Interdisciplinary center for scientific computing, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 205, Heidelberg, Germany.
    Tozan, Yesim
    School of Global Public Health, New York University, New York, United States.
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Wallin, Jonas
    Department of statistics, Lund university, Sweden.
    Rocklöv, Joacim
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa. Heidelberg institute of global health and Interdisciplinary center for scientific computing, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 205, Heidelberg, Germany.
    European projections of West Nile virus transmission under climate change scenarios2023Ingår i: One Health, ISSN 2352-7714, Vol. 16, artikel-id 100509Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    West Nile virus (WNV), a mosquito-borne zoonosis, has emerged as a disease of public health concern in Europe. Recent outbreaks have been attributed to suitable climatic conditions for its vectors favoring transmission. However, to date, projections of the risk for WNV expansion under climate change scenarios is lacking. Here, we estimate the WNV-outbreaks risk for a set of climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. We delineate the potential risk-areas and estimate the growth in the population at risk (PAR). We used supervised machine learning classifier, XGBoost, to estimate the WNV-outbreak risk using an ensemble climate model and multi-scenario approach. The model was trained by collating climatic, socioeconomic, and reported WNV-infections data (2010−22) and the out-of-sample results (1950–2009, 2023–99) were validated using a novel Confidence-Based Performance Estimation (CBPE) method. Projections of area specific outbreak risk trends, and corresponding population at risk were estimated and compared across scenarios. Our results show up to 5-fold increase in West Nile virus (WNV) risk for 2040-60 in Europe, depending on geographical region and climate scenario, compared to 2000-20. The proportion of disease-reported European land areas could increase from 15% to 23-30%, putting 161 to 244 million people at risk. Across scenarios, Western Europe appears to be facing the largest increase in the outbreak risk of WNV. The increase in the risk is not linear but undergoes periods of sharp changes governed by climatic thresholds associated with ideal conditions for WNV vectors. The increased risk will require a targeted public health response to manage the expansion of WNV with climate change in Europe.

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  • 9.
    Fortuin-de Smidt, Melony C.
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Allmänmedicin.
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Lassale, Camille
    Weiderpass, Elisabete
    Andersson, Jonas
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för medicin.
    Huerta, José María
    Ekelund, Ulf
    Aleksandrova, Krasimira
    Tong, Tammy Y.N.
    Dahm, Christina C.
    Tjønneland, Anne
    Kyrø, Cecilie
    Steindorf, Karen
    Schulze, Matthias B.
    Katzke, Verena
    Sacerdote, Carlotta
    Agnoli, Claudia
    Masala, Giovanna
    Tumino, Rosario
    Panico, Salvatore
    Boer, Jolanda M.A.
    Onland-Moret, N. Charlotte
    Wendel-Vos, G.C. Wanda
    van der Schouw, Yvonne T.
    Benjaminsen Borch, Kristin
    Agudo, Antonio
    Petrova, Dafina
    Chirlaque, María-Dolores
    Conchi, Moreno-Iribas
    Amiano, Pilar
    Melander, Olle
    Heath, Alicia K.
    Aune, Dagfinn
    Forouhi, Nita G.
    Langenberg, Claudia
    Brage, Soren
    Riboli, Elio
    Wareham, Nicholas J.
    Danesh, John
    Butterworth, Adam S.
    Wennberg, Patrik
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Allmänmedicin.
    Physical activity attenuates but does not eliminate coronary heart disease risk amongst adults with risk factors: EPIC-CVD case-cohort study2022Ingår i: European Journal of Preventive Cardiology, ISSN 2047-4873, E-ISSN 2047-4881, Vol. 29, nr 12, s. 1618-1629Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    AIMS: This study aimed to evaluate the association between physical activity and the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) in individuals with and without CHD risk factors.

    METHODS AND RESULTS: EPIC-CVD is a case-cohort study of 29 333 participants that included 13 582 incident CHD cases and a randomly selected sub-cohort nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Self-reported physical activity was summarized using the Cambridge physical activity index (inactive, moderately inactive, moderately active, and active). Participants were categorized into sub-groups based on the presence or the absence of the following risk factors: obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2), hypercholesterolaemia (total cholesterol ≥6.2 mmol/L), history of diabetes, hypertension (self-reported or ≥140/90 mmHg), and current smoking. Prentice-weighted Cox regression was used to assess the association between physical activity and incident CHD events (non-fatal and fatal).Compared to inactive participants without the respective CHD risk factor (referent), excess CHD risk was highest in physically inactive and lowest in moderately active participants with CHD risk factors. Corresponding excess CHD risk estimates amongst those with obesity were 47% [95% confidence interval (CI) 32-64%] and 21% (95%CI 2-44%), with hypercholesterolaemia were 80% (95%CI 55-108%) and 48% (95%CI 22-81%), with hypertension were 80% (95%CI 65-96%) and 49% (95%CI 28-74%), with diabetes were 142% (95%CI 63-260%), and 100% (95%CI 32-204%), and amongst smokers were 152% (95%CI 122-186%) and 109% (95%CI 74-150%).

    CONCLUSIONS: In people with CHD risk factors, moderate physical activity, equivalent to 40 mins of walking per day, attenuates but does not completely offset CHD risk.

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  • 10.
    Hollowell, Thomas
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för klinisk mikrobiologi, Infektionssjukdomar. Department of Infectious Diseases, Karlstad Central Hospital, Region Värmland, Karlstad, Sweden.
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa. KEMRI Centre for Global Health Research, Kisumu, Kenya.
    Rocklöv, Joacim
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa. Heidelberg Institute of Global Health and Interdisciplinary Center for Scientific Computing, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.
    Obor, David
    KEMRI Centre for Global Health Research, Kisumu, Kenya.
    Odhiambo, Frank
    KEMRI Centre for Global Health Research, Kisumu, Kenya.
    Ahlm, Clas
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för klinisk mikrobiologi, Infektionssjukdomar.
    Public health determinants of child malaria mortality: a surveillance study within Siaya County, Western Kenya2023Ingår i: Malaria Journal, ISSN 1475-2875, E-ISSN 1475-2875, Vol. 22, nr 1, artikel-id 65Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: Malaria deaths among children have been declining worldwide during the last two decades. Despite preventive, epidemiologic and therapy-development work, mortality rate decline has stagnated in western Kenya resulting in persistently high child malaria morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to identify public health determinants influencing the high burden of malaria deaths among children in this region.

    Methods: A total of 221,929 children, 111,488 females and 110,441 males, under the age of 5 years were enrolled in the Kenya Medical Research Institute/Center for Disease Control Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KEMRI/CDC HDSS) study area in Siaya County during the period 2003–2013. Cause of death was determined by use of verbal autopsy. Age-specific mortality rates were computed, and cox proportional hazard regression was used to model time to malaria death controlling for the socio-demographic factors. A variety of demographic, social and epidemiologic factors were examined.

    Results: In total 8,696 (3.9%) children died during the study period. Malaria was the most prevalent cause of death and constituted 33.2% of all causes of death, followed by acute respiratory infections (26.7%) and HIV/AIDS related deaths (18.6%). There was a marked decrease in overall mortality rate from 2003 to 2013, except for a spike in the rates in 2008. The hazard of death differed between age groups with the youngest having the highest hazard of death HR 6.07 (95% CI 5.10–7.22). Overall, the risk attenuated with age and mortality risks were limited beyond 4 years of age. Longer distance to healthcare HR of 1.44 (95% CI 1.29–1.60), l ow maternal education HR 3.91 (95% CI 1.86–8.22), and low socioeconomic status HR 1.44 (95% CI 1.26–1.64) were all significantly associated with increased hazard of malaria death among children.

    Conclusions: While child mortality due to malaria in the study area in Western Kenya, has been decreasing, a final step toward significant risk reduction is yet to be accomplished. This study highlights residual proximal determinants of risk which can further inform preventive actions.

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  • 11.
    Rocklöv, Joacim
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Tozan, Yesim
    Ramadona, Aditya Lia
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Sudre, Bertrand
    Garrido, Jon
    de Saint Lary, Chiara Bellegarde
    Lohr, Wolfgang
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Semenza, Jan C.
    Using Big Data to Monitor the Introduction and Spread of Chikungunya, Europe, 20172019Ingår i: Emerging Infectious Diseases, ISSN 1080-6040, E-ISSN 1080-6059, Vol. 25, nr 6, s. 1041-1049Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    With regard to fully harvesting the potential of big data, public health lags behind other fields. To determine this potential, we applied big data (air passenger volume from international areas with active chikungunya transmission, Twitter data, and vectorial capacity estimates of Aedes albopictus mosquitoes) to the 2017 chikungunya outbreaks in Europe to assess the risks for virus transmission, virus importation, and short-range dispersion from the outbreak foci. We found that indicators based on voluminous and velocious data can help identify virus dispersion from outbreak foci and that vector abundance and vectorial capacity estimates can provide information on local climate suitability for mosquitoborne outbreaks. In contrast, more established indicators based on Wikipedia and Google Trends search strings were less timely. We found that a combination of novel and disparate datasets can be used in real time to prevent and control emerging and reemerging infectious diseases.

  • 12. Romanello, Marina
    et al.
    Di Napoli, Claudia
    Drummond, Paul
    Green, Carole
    Kennard, Harry
    Lampard, Pete
    Scamman, Daniel
    Arnell, Nigel
    Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja
    Ford, Lea Berrang
    Belesova, Kristine
    Bowen, Kathryn
    Cai, Wenjia
    Callaghan, Max
    Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid
    Chambers, Jonathan
    van Daalen, Kim R.
    Dalin, Carole
    Dasandi, Niheer
    Dasgupta, Shouro
    Davies, Michael
    Dominguez-Salas, Paula
    Dubrow, Robert
    Ebi, Kristie L
    Eckelman, Matthew
    Ekins, Paul
    Escobar, Luis E.
    Georgeson, Lucien
    Graham, Hilary
    Gunther, Samuel H.
    Hamilton, Ian
    Hang, Yun
    Hänninen, Risto
    Hartinger, Stella
    He, Kehan
    Hess, Jeremy J.
    Hsu, Shih-Che
    Jankin, Slava
    Jamart, Louis
    Jay, Ollie
    Kelman, Ilan
    Kiesewetter, Gregor
    Kinney, Patrick
    Kjellstrom, Tord
    Kniveton, Dominic
    Lee, Jason K. W.
    Lemke, Bruno
    Liu, Yang
    Liu, Zhao
    Lott, Melissa
    Batista, Martin Lotto
    Lowe, Rachel
    MacGuire, Frances
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime
    Maslin, Mark
    McAllister, Lucy
    McGushin, Alice
    McMichael, Celia
    Mi, Zhifu
    Milner, James
    Minor, Kelton
    Minx, Jan C.
    Mohajeri, Nahid
    Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar
    Morrissey, Karyn
    Munzert, Simon
    Murray, Kris A.
    Neville, Tara
    Nilsson, Maria
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Obradovich, Nick
    O'Hare, Megan B.
    Oreszczyn, Tadj
    Otto, Matthias
    Owfi, Fereidoon
    Pearman, Olivia
    Rabbaniha, Mahnaz
    Robinson, Elizabeth J. Z.
    Rocklöv, Joacim
    Heidelberg Institute for Global Health and Interdisciplinary Centre for Scientific Computing, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.
    Salas, Renee N.
    Semenza, Jan C.
    Sherman, Jodi D.
    Shi, Liuhua
    Shumake-Guillemot, Joy
    Silbert, Grant
    Sofiev, Mikhail
    Springmann, Marco
    Stowell, Jennifer
    Tabatabaei, Meisam
    Taylor, Jonathon
    Triñanes, Joaquin
    Wagner, Fabian
    Wilkinson, Paul
    Winning, Matthew
    Yglesias-González, Marisol
    Zhang, Shihui
    Gong, Peng
    Montgomery, Hugh
    Costello, Anthony
    The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels2022Ingår i: The Lancet, ISSN 0140-6736, E-ISSN 1474-547X, Vol. 400, nr 10363, s. 1619-1654Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 13.
    Romanello, Marina
    et al.
    Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
    McGushin, Alice
    Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
    Di Napoli, Claudia
    School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
    Drummond, Paul
    Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK.
    Hughes, Nick
    Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK.
    Jamart, Louis
    Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
    Kennard, Harry
    UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK.
    Lampard, Pete
    Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK.
    Solano Rodriguez, Baltazar
    UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK.
    Arnell, Nigel
    Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
    Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja
    Institute for Environment and Human Security, United Nations University, Bonn, Germany.
    Belesova, Kristine
    Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
    Cai, Wenjia
    Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
    Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid
    Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
    Capstick, Stuart
    Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK.
    Chambers, Jonathan
    Institute for Environmental Sciences, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
    Chu, Lingzhi
    Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
    Ciampi, Luisa
    The Walker Institute, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
    Dalin, Carole
    Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK.
    Dasandi, Niheer
    School of Government, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
    Dasgupta, Shouro
    Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice, Italy.
    Davies, Michael
    Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK.
    Dominguez-Salas, Paula
    Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, London, UK.
    Dubrow, Robert
    Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
    Ebi, Kristie L
    Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
    Eckelman, Matthew
    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
    Ekins, Paul
    Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK.
    Escobar, Luis E
    Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA.
    Georgeson, Lucien
    Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK.
    Grace, Delia
    Animal and Human Health Program, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya.
    Graham, Hilary
    Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK.
    Gunther, Samuel H
    Human Potential Translational Research Programme, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University Singapore, Singapore.
    Hartinger, Stella
    School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.
    He, Kehan
    The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK.
    Heaviside, Clare
    Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK.
    Hess, Jeremy
    Centre for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
    Hsu, Shih-Che
    UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK.
    Jankin, Slava
    Data Science Lab, Hertie School, Berlin, Germany.
    Jimenez, Marcia P
    Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
    Kelman, Ilan
    Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
    Kiesewetter, Gregor
    Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
    Kinney, Patrick L
    Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA.
    Kjellstrom, Tord
    Health and Environment International Trust, Nelson, New Zealand.
    Kniveton, Dominic
    School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, Falmer, UK.
    Lee, Jason K W
    Human Potential Translational Research Programme, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University Singapore, Singapore.
    Lemke, Bruno
    School of Health, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand.
    Liu, Yang
    Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
    Liu, Zhao
    Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
    Lott, Melissa
    Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
    Lowe, Rachel
    Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
    Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime
    Department of Genetics and Microbiology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
    Maslin, Mark
    Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK.
    McAllister, Lucy
    Center for Energy Markets, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.
    McMichael, Celia
    School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
    Mi, Zhifu
    The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK.
    Milner, James
    Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
    Minor, Kelton
    Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
    Mohajeri, Nahid
    Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK.
    Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar
    Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Psychosocial Health Research Institute, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
    Morrissey, Karyn
    Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark.
    Munzert, Simon
    Data Science Lab, Hertie School, Berlin, Germany.
    Murray, Kris A
    MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK; MRC Unit The Gambia, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia.
    Neville, Tara
    Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
    Nilsson, Maria
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Obradovich, Nick
    Centre for Humans and Machines, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany.
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Oreszczyn, Tadj
    UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK.
    Otto, Matthias
    Department of Arts, Media & Digital Technologies, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand.
    Owfi, Fereidoon
    Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran.
    Pearman, Olivia
    Cooperative Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA.
    Pencheon, David
    College of Medicine and Health, Exeter University, Exeter, UK.
    Rabbaniha, Mahnaz
    Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran.
    Robinson, Elizabeth
    School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
    Rocklöv, Joacim
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Salas, Renee N
    Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
    Semenza, Jan C
    Lateral Public Health Consulting, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Sherman, Jodi
    Department of Anesthesiology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
    Shi, Liuhua
    Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
    Springmann, Marco
    Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
    Tabatabaei, Meisam
    Higher Institution Centre of Excellence, Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia.
    Taylor, Jonathon
    Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland.
    Trinanes, Joaquin
    Department of Electronics and Computer Science, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago, Spain.
    Shumake-Guillemot, Joy
    WHO-WMO Joint Climate and Health Office, Geneva, Switzerland.
    Vu, Bryan
    Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
    Wagner, Fabian
    Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
    Wilkinson, Paul
    Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
    Winning, Matthew
    Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK.
    Yglesias, Marisol
    School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.
    Zhang, Shihui
    Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
    Gong, Peng
    Department of Geography, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
    Montgomery, Hugh
    Centre for Human Health and Performance, University College London, London, UK.
    Costello, Anthony
    Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
    Hamilton, Ian
    UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK.
    The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future2021Ingår i: The Lancet, ISSN 0140-6736, E-ISSN 1474-547X, Vol. 398, nr 10311, s. 1619-1662Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat)
  • 14.
    Romanello, Marina
    et al.
    Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Napoli, Claudia di
    School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom.
    Green, Carole
    Department of Global Health, University of Washington, DC, Washington, United States.
    Kennard, Harry
    Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, NY, New York, United States.
    Lampard, Pete
    Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, United Kingdom.
    Scamman, Daniel
    Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Walawender, Maria
    Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Ali, Zakari
    Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
    Ameli, Nadia
    Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja
    Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Beggs, Paul J
    School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University, NSW, Sydney, Australia.
    Belesova, Kristine
    School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Berrang Ford, Lea
    School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom.
    Bowen, Kathryn
    School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, VIC, Melbourne, Australia.
    Cai, Wenjia
    Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
    Callaghan, Max
    Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany.
    Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid
    Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland.
    Chambers, Jonathan
    Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
    Cross, Troy J
    Heat and Health Research Incubator, University of Sydney, NSW, Sydney, Australia.
    van Daalen, Kim R
    Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain.
    Dalin, Carole
    Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Dasandi, Niheer
    International Development Department, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom.
    Dasgupta, Shouro
    Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change Foundation, Lecce, Italy.
    Davies, Michael
    Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Dominguez-Salas, Paula
    Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, London, United Kingdom.
    Dubrow, Robert
    School of Public Health, Yale University, CT, New Haven, United States.
    Ebi, Kristie L
    Department of Global Health, University of Washington, DC, Washington, United States.
    Eckelman, Matthew
    Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, MA, Boston, United States.
    Ekins, Paul
    Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Freyberg, Chris
    Department of Information Systems, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
    Gasparyan, Olga
    Department of Political Science, Florida State University, FL, Tallahassee, United States.
    Gordon-Strachan, Georgiana
    Tropical Metabolism Research Unit, University of the West Indies, Mona, Jamaica.
    Graham, Hilary
    Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, United Kingdom.
    Gunther, Samuel H
    Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
    Hamilton, Ian
    Energy Institute, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Hang, Yun
    Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Emory University, GA, Atlanta, United States.
    Hänninen, Risto
    Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
    Hartinger, Stella
    Carlos Vidal Layseca School of Public Health and Management, Cayetano Heredia Pervuvian University, Lima, Peru.
    He, Kehan
    Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Heidecke, Julian
    Interdisciplinary Center for Scientific Computing, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.
    Hess, Jeremy J
    Centre for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, DC, Washington, United States.
    Hsu, Shih-Che
    Energy Institute, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Jamart, Louis
    Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Jankin, Slava
    Centre for AI in Government, University of Birmingham, UK, Birmingham, United Kingdom.
    Jay, Ollie
    Heat and Health Research Incubator, University of Sydney, NSW, Sydney, Australia.
    Kelman, Ilan
    Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Kiesewetter, Gregor
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, Laxenburg, Austria.
    Kinney, Patrick
    Department of Environmental Health, Boston University, MA, Boston, United States.
    Kniveton, Dominic
    School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton and Hove, United Kingdom.
    Kouznetsov, Rostislav
    Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
    Larosa, Francesca
    Engineering Mechanics, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Lee, Jason K W
    Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
    Lemke, Bruno
    School of Health, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand.
    Liu, Yang
    Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Emory University, GA, Atlanta, United States.
    Liu, Zhao
    Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
    Lott, Melissa
    Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, NY, New York, United States.
    Lotto Batista, Martín
    Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain.
    Lowe, Rachel
    Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies, Barcelona, Spain.
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin.
    Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime
    Department of Genetics and Microbiology, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain.
    Maslin, Mark
    Department of Geography, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    McAllister, Lucy
    Environmental Studies Program, Denison University, OH, Granville, United States.
    McMichael, Celia
    School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, VIC, Melbourne, Australia.
    Mi, Zhifu
    Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Milner, James
    Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
    Minor, Kelton
    Data Science Institute, Columbia University, NY, New York, United States.
    Minx, Jan C
    Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany.
    Mohajeri, Nahid
    Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Momen, Natalie C
    Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland.
    Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar
    Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Psychosocial Health Research Institute, Department of Community and Family Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
    Morrissey, Karyn
    Department of Technology Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark.
    Munzert, Simon
    Hertie School, Berlin, Germany.
    Murray, Kris A
    Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
    Neville, Tara
    Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland.
    Nilsson, Maria
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Obradovich, Nick
    Laureate Institute for Brain Research, OK, Tulsa, United States.
    O'Hare, Megan B
    Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Oliveira, Camile
    Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Oreszczyn, Tadj
    Energy Institute, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Otto, Matthias
    School of Health, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand.
    Owfi, Fereidoon
    Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Tehran, Iran.
    Pearman, Olivia
    Center for Science and Technology Policy, University of Colorado Boulder, CO, Boulder, United States.
    Pega, Frank
    Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland.
    Pershing, Andrew
    Climate Central, NJ, Princeton, United States.
    Rabbaniha, Mahnaz
    Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Tehran, Iran.
    Rickman, Jamie
    Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Robinson, Elizabeth J Z
    Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, United Kingdom.
    Rocklöv, Joacim
    Interdisciplinary Center for Scientific Computing, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.
    Salas, Renee N
    Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, MA, Boston, United States.
    Semenza, Jan C.
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin.
    Sherman, Jodi D
    Department of Anesthesiology, Yale University, CT, New Haven, United States.
    Shumake-Guillemot, Joy
    World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
    Silbert, Grant
    Melbourne Medical School, The University of Melbourne, VIC, Melbourne, Australia.
    Sofiev, Mikhail
    Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
    Springmann, Marco
    Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
    Stowell, Jennifer D
    Department of Environmental Health, Boston University, MA, Boston, United States.
    Tabatabaei, Meisam
    Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia.
    Taylor, Jonathon
    Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland.
    Thompson, Ross
    UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom.
    Tonne, Cathryn
    Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain.
    Treskova, Marina
    Interdisciplinary Center for Scientific Computing, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.
    Trinanes, Joaquin A
    Department of Electronics and Computer Science, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago, Spain.
    Wagner, Fabian
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, Laxenburg, Austria.
    Warnecke, Laura
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, Laxenburg, Austria.
    Whitcombe, Hannah
    Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Winning, Matthew
    Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Wyns, Arthur
    Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of Melbourne, VIC, Melbourne, Australia.
    Yglesias-González, Marisol
    Centro Latinoamericano de Excelencia en Cambio Climatico y Salud, Cayetano Heredia Pervuvian University, Lima, Peru.
    Zhang, Shihui
    Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
    Zhang, Ying
    School of Public Health, University of Sydney, NSW, Sydney, Australia.
    Zhu, Qiao
    Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Emory University, GA, Atlanta, United States.
    Gong, Peng
    Department of Geography, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong.
    Montgomery, Hugh
    Department of Experimental and Translational Medicine and Division of Medicine, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    Costello, Anthony
    Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
    The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms2023Ingår i: The Lancet, ISSN 0140-6736, E-ISSN 1474-547X, Vol. 402, nr 10419, s. 2346-2394Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat)
  • 15.
    Schlesinger, Mikaela
    et al.
    Global Health Research Group, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, Gothenburg University, Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Prieto Alvarado, Franklyn Edwin
    Directorate of Surveillance and Risk Analysis in Public Health, Instituto Nacional de Salud (INS) de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia.
    Borbón Ramos, Milena Edith
    Directorate of Surveillance and Risk Analysis in Public Health, Instituto Nacional de Salud (INS) de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia.
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa. Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin.
    Merle, Corinne Simone
    Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR-WHO), World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
    Kroeger, Axel
    Freiburg University, Center for Medicine, and Society (ZMG), Institute of Infection Prevention, Freiburg, Germany.
    Hussain-Alkhateeb, Laith
    Global Health Research Group, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, Gothenburg University, Gothenburg, Sweden; Population Health Research Section, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center (KAIMRC), King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences (KSAU-HS), Ministry of National Guard - Health Affairs, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
    Enabling countries to manage outbreaks: statistical, operational, and contextual analysis of the early warning and response system (EWARS-csd) for dengue outbreaks2024Ingår i: Frontiers In Public Health, ISSN 2296-2565, Vol. 12, artikel-id 1323618Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Introduction: Dengue is currently the fastest-spreading mosquito-borne viral illness in the world, with over half of the world's population living in areas at risk of dengue. As dengue continues to spread and become more of a health burden, it is essential to have tools that can predict when and where outbreaks might occur to better prepare vector control operations and communities' responses. One such predictive tool, the Early Warning and Response System for climate-sensitive diseases (EWARS-csd), primarily uses climatic data to alert health systems of outbreaks weeks before they occur. EWARS-csd uses the robust Distribution Lag Non-linear Model in combination with the INLA Bayesian regression framework to predict outbreaks, utilizing historical data. This study seeks to validate the tool's performance in two states of Colombia, evaluating how well the tool performed in 11 municipalities of varying dengue endemicity levels.

    Methods: The validation study used retrospective data with alarm indicators (mean temperature and rain sum) and an outbreak indicator (weekly hospitalizations) from 11 municipalities spanning two states in Colombia from 2015 to 2020. Calibrations of different variables were performed to find the optimal sensitivity and positive predictive value for each municipality.

    Results: The study demonstrated that the tool produced overall reliable early outbreak alarms. The median of the most optimal calibration for each municipality was very high: sensitivity (97%), specificity (94%), positive predictive value (75%), and negative predictive value (99%; 95% CI).

    Discussion: The tool worked well across all population sizes and all endemicity levels but had slightly poorer results in the highly endemic municipality at predicting non-outbreak weeks. Migration and/or socioeconomic status are factors that might impact predictive performance and should be further evaluated. Overall EWARS-csd performed very well, providing evidence that it should continue to be implemented in Colombia and other countries for outbreak prediction.

    Ladda ner fulltext (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 16.
    Tozan, Yesim
    et al.
    School of Global Public Health, New York University, NY, United States.
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa. Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin.
    Kim, Sooyoung
    School of Global Public Health, New York University, NY, United States.
    Rocklöv, Joacim
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa. Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin. Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Interdisciplinary Centre for Scientific Computing, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.
    A methodological framework for economic evaluation of operational response to vector-borne diseases based on early warning systems2023Ingår i: American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, ISSN 0002-9637, E-ISSN 1476-1645, Vol. 108, nr 3, s. 627-633Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Despite significant advances in improving the predictive models for vector-borne diseases, only a few countries have integrated an early warning system (EWS) with predictive and response capabilities into their disease surveillance systems. The limited understanding of forecast performance and uncertainties by decision-makers is one of the primary factors that precludes its operationalization in preparedness and response planning. Further, predictive models exhibit a decrease in forecast skill with longer lead times, a trade-off between forecast accuracy and timeliness and effectiveness of action. This study presents a methodological framework to evaluate the economic value of EWS-triggered responses from the health system perspective. Assuming an operational EWS in place, the framework makes explicit the trade-offs between forecast accuracy, timeliness of action, effectiveness of response, and costs, and uses the net benefit analysis, which measures the benefits of taking action minus the associated costs. Uncertainty in disease forecasts and other parameters is accounted for through probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The output is the probability distribution of the net benefit estimates at given forecast lead times. A non-negative net benefit and the probability of yielding such are considered a general signal that the EWS-triggered response at a given lead time is economically viable. In summary, the proposed framework translates uncertainties associated with disease forecasts and other parameters into decision uncertainty by quantifying the economic risk associated with operational response to vector-borne disease events of potential importance predicted by an EWS. The goal is to facilitate a more informed and transparent public health decision-making under uncertainty.

  • 17. van Daalen, Kim R.
    et al.
    Romanello, Marina
    Rocklöv, Joacim
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa. Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.
    Semenza, Jan C.
    Tonne, Cathryn
    Markandya, Anil
    Dasandi, Niheer
    Jankin, Slava
    Achebak, Hicham
    Ballester, Joan
    Bechara, Hannah
    Callaghan, Max W.
    Chambers, Jonathan
    Dasgupta, Shouro
    Drummond, Paul
    Farooq, Zia
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Gasparyan, Olga
    Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube
    Hamilton, Ian
    Hänninen, Risto
    Kazmierczak, Aleksandra
    Kendrovski, Vladimir
    Kennard, Harry
    Kiesewetter, Gregor
    Lloyd, Simon J.
    Lotto Batista, Martin
    Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime
    Milà, Carles
    Minx, Jan C.
    Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark
    Palamarchuk, Julia
    Quijal-Zamorano, Marcos
    Robinson, Elizabeth J. Z.
    Scamman, Daniel
    Schmoll, Oliver
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Sjödin, Henrik
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Sofiev, Mikhail
    Solaraju-Murali, Balakrishnan
    Springmann, Marco
    Triñanes, Joaquin
    Anto, Josep M.
    Nilsson, Maria
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Lowe, Rachel
    The 2022 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: towards a climate resilient future2022Ingår i: The Lancet Public Health, ISSN 2468-2667, Vol. 7, nr 11, s. e942-e965Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Ladda ner fulltext (pdf)
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  • 18. Watts, Nick
    et al.
    Amann, Markus
    Arnell, Nigel
    Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja
    Beagley, Jessica
    Belesova, Kristine
    Boykoff, Maxwell
    Byass, Peter
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Cai, Wenjia
    Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid
    Capstick, Stuart
    Chambers, Jonathan
    Coleman, Samantha
    Dalin, Carole
    Daly, Meaghan
    Dasandi, Niheer
    Dasgupta, Shouro
    Davies, Michael
    Di Napoli, Claudia
    Dominguez-Salas, Paula
    Drummond, Paul
    Dubrow, Robert
    Ebi, Kristie L.
    Eckelman, Matthew
    Ekins, Paul
    Escobar, Luis E.
    Georgeson, Lucien
    Golder, Su
    Grace, Delia
    Graham, Hilary
    Haggar, Paul
    Hamilton, Ian
    Hartinger, Stella
    Hess, Jeremy
    Hsu, Shih-Che
    Hughes, Nick
    Jankin Mikhaylov, Slava
    Jimenez, Marcia P.
    Kelman, Ilan
    Kennard, Harry
    Kiesewetter, Gregor
    Kinney, Patrick L.
    Kjellstrom, Tord
    Kniveton, Dominic
    Lampard, Pete
    Lemke, Bruno
    Liu, Yang
    Liu, Zhao
    Lott, Melissa
    Lowe, Rachel
    Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime
    Maslin, Mark
    McAllister, Lucy
    McGushin, Alice
    McMichael, Celia
    Milner, James
    Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar
    Morrissey, Karyn
    Munzert, Simon
    Murray, Kris A.
    Neville, Tara
    Nilsson, Maria
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Oreszczyn, Tadj
    Otto, Matthias
    Owfi, Fereidoon
    Pearman, Olivia
    Pencheon, David
    Quinn, Ruth
    Rabbaniha, Mahnaz
    Robinson, Elizabeth
    Rocklöv, Joacim
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Romanello, Marina
    Semenza, Jan C.
    Sherman, Jodi
    Shi, Liuhua
    Springmann, Marco
    Tabatabaei, Meisam
    Taylor, Jonathon
    Triñanes, Joaquin
    Shumake-Guillemot, Joy
    Vu, Bryan
    Wilkinson, Paul
    Winning, Matthew
    Gong, Peng
    Montgomery, Hugh
    Costello, Anthony
    The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises2021Ingår i: The Lancet, ISSN 0140-6736, E-ISSN 1474-547X, Vol. 397, nr 10269, s. 129-170Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The Lancet Countdown is an international collaboration established to provide an independent, global monitoring system dedicated to tracking the emerging health profile of the changing climate.

    The 2020 report presents 43 indicators across five sections: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. This report represents the findings and consensus of the 35 leading academic institutions and UN agencies that make up The Lancet Countdown, and draws on the expertise of climate scientists, geographers, engineers, experts in energy, food, and transport, economists, social, and political scientists, data scientists, public health professionals, and doctors.

  • 19. Watts, Nick
    et al.
    Amann, Markus
    Arnell, Nigel
    Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja
    Belesova, Kristine
    Berry, Helen
    Bouley, Timothy
    Boykoff, Maxwell
    Byass, Peter
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Cai, Wenjia
    Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid
    Chambers, Jonathan
    Daly, Meaghan
    Dasandi, Niheer
    Davies, Michael
    Depoux, Anneliese
    Dominguez-Salas, Paula
    Drummond, Paul
    Ebi, Kristie L
    Ekins, Paul
    Montoya, Lucia Fernandez
    Fischer, Helen
    Georgeson, Lucien
    Grace, Delia
    Graham, Hilary
    Hamilton, Ian
    Hartinger, Stella
    Hess, Jeremy
    Kelman, Ilan
    Kiesewetter, Gregor
    Kjellstrom, Tord
    Kniveton, Dominic
    Lemke, Bruno
    Liang, Lu
    Lott, Melissa
    Lowe, Rachel
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime
    Maslin, Mark
    McAllister, Lucy
    Mikhaylov, Slava Jankin
    Milner, James
    Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar
    Morrissey, Karyn
    Murray, Kris
    Nilsson, Maria
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Neville, Tara
    Oreszczyn, Tadj
    Owfi, Fereidoon
    Pearman, Olivia
    Pencheon, David
    Pye, Steve
    Rabbaniha, Mahnaz
    Robinson, Elizabeth
    Rocklöv, Joacim
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Saxer, Olivia
    Schütte, Stefanie
    Semenza, Jan C
    Shumake-Guillemot, Joy
    Steinbach, Rebecca
    Tabatabaei, Meisam
    Tomei, Julia
    Trinanes, Joaquin
    Wheeler, Nicola
    Wilkinson, Paul
    Gong, Peng
    Montgomery, Hugh
    Costello, Anthony
    The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come2018Ingår i: The Lancet, ISSN 0140-6736, E-ISSN 1474-547X, Vol. 392, nr 10163, s. 2479-2514Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat)
  • 20. Watts, Nick
    et al.
    Amann, Markus
    Arnell, Nigel
    Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja
    Belesova, Kristine
    Boykoff, Maxwell
    Byass, Peter
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Cai, Wenjia
    Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid
    Capstick, Stuart
    Chambers, Jonathan
    Dalin, Carole
    Daly, Meaghan
    Dasandi, Niheer
    Davies, Michael
    Drummond, Paul
    Dubrow, Robert
    Ebi, Kristie L.
    Eckelman, Matthew
    Ekins, Paul
    Escobar, Luis E.
    Montoya, Lucia Fernandez
    Georgeson, Lucien
    Graham, Hilary
    Haggar, Paul
    Hamilton, Ian
    Hartinger, Stella
    Hess, Jeremy
    Kelman, Ilan
    Kiesewetter, Gregor
    Kjellstrom, Tord
    Kniveton, Dominic
    Lemke, Bruno
    Liu, Yang
    Lott, Melissa
    Lowe, Rachel
    Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime
    Maslin, Mark
    McAllister, Lucy
    McGushin, Alice
    Mikhaylov, Slava Jankin
    Milner, James
    Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar
    Morrissey, Karyn
    Murray, Kris
    Munzert, Simon
    Nilsson, Maria
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Neville, Tara
    Oreszczyn, Tadj
    Owfi, Fereidoon
    Pearman, Olivia
    Pencheon, David
    Phung, Dung
    Pye, Steve
    Quinn, Ruth
    Rabbaniha, Mahnaz
    Robinson, Elizabeth
    Rocklöv, Joacim
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
    Semenza, Jan C.
    Sherman, Jodi
    Shumake-Guillemot, Joy
    Tabatabaei, Meisam
    Taylor, Jonathon
    Trinanes, Joaquin
    Wilkinson, Paul
    Costello, Anthony
    Gong, Peng
    Montgomery, Hugh
    The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate2019Ingår i: The Lancet, ISSN 0140-6736, E-ISSN 1474-547X, Vol. 394, nr 10211, s. 1836-1878Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat)
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