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  • 1.
    Buchadas, Ana R. C.
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Hof, Anouschka R.
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Future breeding and foraging sites of a southern edge population of the locally endangered Black Guillemot Cepphus grylle2017Inngår i: Bird Study, ISSN 0006-3657, E-ISSN 1944-6705, Vol. 64, nr 3, s. 306-316Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Capsule: One of the southernmost populations of the Black Guillemot Cepphus grylle is currently endangered, and the risk may be exacerbated by climate change. Aims: We evaluated the future vulnerability of the Black Guillemot by predicting the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of its breeding and foraging range in the Baltic Sea. Methods: We used MaxEnt, a species distribution modelling technique, to predict the current and future breeding grounds and foraging sites. Results: We found that although the foraging range is expected to increase in the southern Baltic Sea in future, these areas will no longer be suitable as breeding grounds due to a changing climate, creating a spatial mismatch. Conclusion: Our predictions indicate where threats to the species may be most severe and can be used to guide conservation planning. We advocate conservation measures which integrate potential future threats and focus on breeding sites across the current and future potential geographic range of the Black Guillemot.

  • 2.
    Hof, Anouschka R.
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap. Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 USA.
    Rodriguez-Castaneda, Genoveva
    Allen, Andrew M.
    Jansson, Roland
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Nilsson, Christer
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Vulnerability of Subarctic and Arctic breeding birds2017Inngår i: Ecological Applications, ISSN 1051-0761, E-ISSN 1939-5582, Vol. 27, nr 1, s. 219-234Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Recent research predicts that future climate change will result in substantial biodiversity loss associated with loss of habitat for species. However, the magnitude of the anticipated biodiversity impacts are less well known. Studies of species vulnerability to climate change through species distribution models are often limited to assessing the extent of species' exposure to the consequences of climate change to their local environment, neglecting species sensitivity to global change. The likelihood that species or populations will decline or go extinct due to climate change also depends on the general sensitivity and adaptive capacity of species. Hence, analyses should also obtain more accurate assessments of their vulnerability. We-addressed this by constructing a vulnerability matrix for 180 bird species currently breeding in Subarctic and Arctic Europe that integrates a climatic exposure-based vulnerability index and a natural-history trait-based vulnerability index. Species that may need extra conservation-attention based on our matrix include the Great Snipe (Gallinago media), the Rough-legged Buzzard (Buteo lagopus), the Red-throated Pipit (Anthus cervinus), the Common Swift (Apus apus), the Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris), and the Bar-tailed Godwit (Limosa lapponica). Our vulnerability matrix stresses the importance of looking beyond exposure to climate change when species conservation is the aim. For the species that scored high in our matrix the future in the region looks grim and targeted conservation actions, incorporating macroecological and global perspectives, may be needed to alleviate severe population declines. We further demonstrate that climate change is predicted to significantly reduce the current breeding range of species adapted to cold climates in Subarctic and Arctic Europe. The number of incubation days and whether the species was a habitat specialist or not were also among the variables most strongly related to predicted contraction or expansion of species' breeding ranges. This-approach may aid the identification of vulnerable bird species worldwide.

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