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As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

Litter decomposition and nutrient mineralization in high-latitude peatlands are constrained by low temperatures. So far, little is known about the effects of seasonal components of climate change (higher spring and summer temperatures, more snow which leads to higher winter soil temperatures) on these processes. In a 4-year field experiment, we manipulated these seasonal components in a sub-arctic bog and studied the effects on the decomposition and N and P dynamics of leaf litter of Calamagrostis lapponica, Betula nana, and Rubus chamaemorus, incubated both in a common ambient environment and in the treatment plots. Mass loss in the controls increased in the order Calamagrostis < Betula < Rubus. After 4 years, overall mass loss in the climate-treatment plots was 10 % higher compared to the ambient incubation environment. Litter chemistry showed within each incubation environment only a few and species-specific responses. Compared to the interspecific differences, they resulted in only moderate climate treatment effects on mass loss and these differed among seasons and species. Neither N nor P mineralization in the litter were affected by the incubation environment. Remarkably, for all species, no net N mineralization had occurred in any of the treatments during 4 years. Species differed in P-release patterns, and summer warming strongly stimulated P release for all species. Thus, moderate changes in summer temperatures and/or winter snow addition have limited effects on litter decomposition rates and N dynamics, but summer warming does stimulate litter P release. As a result, N-limitation of plant growth in this sub-arctic bog may be sustained or even further promoted.

Herbivory is one of the key drivers shaping plant community dynamics. Herbivores can strongly influence plant productivity directly through defoliation and the return of nutrients in the form of dung and urine, but also indirectly by reducing the abundance of neighbouring plants and inducing changes in soil processes. However, the relative importance of these processes is poorly understood. We, therefore, established a common garden experiment to study plant responses to defoliation, dung addition, moss cover, and the soil legacy of reindeer grazing. We used an arctic tundra grazed by reindeer as our study system, and Festuca ovina, a common grazing-tolerant grass species as the model species. The soil legacy of reindeer grazing had the strongest effect on plants, and resulted in higher growth in soils originating from previously heavily-grazed sites. Defoliation also had a strong effect and reduced shoot and root growth and nutrient uptake. Plants did not fully compensate for the tissue lost due to defoliation, even when nutrient availability was high. In contrast, defoliation enhanced plant nitrogen concentrations. Dung addition increased plant production, nitrogen concentrations and nutrient uptake, although the effect was fairly small. Mosses also had a positive effect on aboveground plant production as long as the plants were not defoliated. The presence of a thick moss layer reduced plant growth following defoliation. This study demonstrates that grasses, even though they suffer from defoliation, can tolerate high densities of herbivores when all aspects of herbivores on ecosystems are taken into account. Our results further show that the positive effect of herbivores on plant growth via changes in soil properties is essential for plants to cope with a high grazing pressure. The strong effect of the soil legacy of reindeer grazing reveals that herbivores can have long-lasting effects on plant productivity and ecosystem functioning after grazing has ceased.

Herbivores can strongly influence plant growth directly through defoliation and the return of nutrients in the form of dung and urine but also indirectly by reducing the abundance of neighbouring plants and inducing changes in soil processes. The relative importance of these driving mechanisms of plant response to herbivory are still poorly understood. In a common garden experiment, we studied the aboveground and belowground responses of Festuca ovina, a grazing tolerant grass common in arctic secondary grassland, to defoliation, reindeer dung addition, changes in soil microclimate induced by the presence or the absence of a moss cover, and soil grazing legacy. Defoliation strongly reduced shoot and root growth and plant nutrient uptake. Plants did thus not compensate for the tissue lost due to defoliation, even at a higher nutrient availability. By contrast, defoliation enhanced plant N concentration and decreased plant C to N ratio. Soil from heavily grazed sites and dung addition increased plant production, plant N concentrations and nutrient uptake, although the effects of dung addition were only small. Mosses had a strong negative effect of root biomass and reduced plant compensatory growth after defoliation. Interestingly mosses also had facilitative effects on aboveground plant growth in absence of defoliation and on plant nutrient uptake and N concentrations. Although plants suffered severely from defoliation, they were also strongly favoured by the increased nutrient availability associated with herbivory. After two years, plants produced as much biomass when all positive and negative effects of herbivores were considered (defoliation, soil communities and nutrient availability under heavily grazing, dung addition and no moss cover) as in the ungrazed conditions (no defoliation, soil communities and nutrient availability under lightly grazing, no dung addition, a thick moss cover). This study indicates that graminoids can tolerate high densities of herbivores, although it suffer from defoliation directly, and suggests that changes in plant quality following defoliation and grazing-induced changes in soil processes are two key mechanisms through which herbivores can control plant productivity in arctic secondary grasslands. Plant tolerance to herbivory will depends on how herbivores utilise a pasture area and on the balance between the positive and the negative effects of grazing on plant growth.